ARCO — Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$8.87
Market Cap$1.93B
Float120.8M
Shares Outstanding130.7M
P/E (Forward)14.25
P/E (TTM)8.24
Price/Sales (TTM)0.40
vs. Analyst Target+22.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin4.86%
Operating Margin (TTM)5.16%
Revenue (TTM)$4.82B
Earnings Growth (YoY)159.40%
Dividend Rate0.3%
Analyst Target Price$10.86 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.98B -$149M $115M $28.4M
2021 $2.66B $45.5M $324M $248M
2022 $3.62B $140M $493M $384M
2023 $4.33B $181M $597M $464M
2024 $4.47B $149M $586M $503M
2025 $4.68B $212M $574M $572M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Mar 2025 $1.08B $13.9M
Jun 2025 $1.14B $22.6M
Sep 2025 $1.19B $150M
Dec 2025 $1.27B $25.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.6%
Institutional Ownership53.4%
Short Float2.8%
% of All Funds Holding1.75%
Number of Funds Holding144

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$8.67Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$7.78Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$7.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$8.71Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$7.89Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$7.81Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$8.87Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$8.20 support 1.17x 2 months ago
$9.80 resistance 1.47x 20 months ago
$9.70 resistance 1.38x 22 months ago
$10.70 resistance 1.18x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (61 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.30% 0.00% 44.26% 1.96% -5.92%
1 Day -0.11% 0.20% 52.46% 8.12% -13.90%
1 Week -2.08% -2.63% 30.00% 17.13% -14.58%
2 Weeks -1.68% -2.63% 36.67% 19.74% -26.88%
1 Month 0.15% -0.60% 45.00% 35.60% -22.11%

Next earnings: August 8, 2026 (70 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.0%60.0%15
Feb-1.6%26.7%15
Mar-0.4%40.0%15
Apr2.8%53.3%15
May-2.0%53.3%15
Jun1.2%46.7%15
Jul2.7%73.3%15
Aug-6.2%26.7%15
Sep-2.6%33.3%15
Oct2.8%66.7%15
Nov6.0%60.0%15
Dec-1.6%40.0%15

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.23% 43.3% 711
Tuesday 0.15% 50.1% 782
Wednesday 0.15% 48.3% 778
Thursday -0.02% 47.8% 764
Friday -0.01% 45.9% 764

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 53.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.6%

Founder-led management: Woods Staton (Executive Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$1.0M
Net Shares Change-20,000
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Staton Woods Executive Chairman -$525,027.14 1 1 sell
Raganato Luis Alberto Chief Executive Officer -$218,635.78 1 1 sell
Tannenbaum Mariano Chief Financial Officer -$203,184.52 1 1 sell
Hernandez Artigas Carlos -$180,200 1 1 sell
Staton Francisco Alberto -$117,557.66 1 1 sell
Gonzalez Avila Carlos Eduardo Chief Operating Officer -$67,848.44 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-12 – 2026-05-12 5 5 -$1.1M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-12 Tannenbaum Mariano Chief Financial Officer -$203,184.52 Transaction at $9.02, now -1.7%
2026-05-12 Staton Woods Executive Chairman -$525,027.14 Transaction at $9.02, now -1.7%
2026-05-12 Raganato Luis Alberto Chief Executive Officer -$218,635.78 Transaction at $9.02, now -1.7%
2026-05-12 Gonzalez Avila Carlos Eduardo Chief Operating Officer -$67,848.44 Transaction at $9.02, now -1.7%
2026-05-28 Hernandez Artigas Carlos -$180,200 Transaction at $9.01, now -1.6%
2026-05-12 Staton Francisco Alberto -$117,557.66 Transaction at $9.02, now -1.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ARCO on Trend Edge →