ALEC — Alector Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ALEC Bearish with a Setup Score of 35, net conviction 30, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score35
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction30
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Alector Inc

Alector, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapies to counteract the progression of neurodegeneration in the United States. Its pipeline includes Nivisnebart, an investigational human recombinant monoclonal antibody for treating prevalent neurodegenerative diseases; AL137, an anti-amyloid beta antibody paired in preclinical development for the potential treatment of Alzheimer's disease; and AL050, a GCase enzyme replacement… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.61
Market Cap$182M
Float93.8M
Shares Outstanding111.0M
P/E (Forward)8.47
Price/Sales (TTM)9.86
vs. Analyst Target+92.5% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-2382.31%
Revenue (TTM)$18.4M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-86.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$3.10 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $21.1M -$183M $21.1M -$188M
2021 $207M -$28.0M $207M -$29.0M
2022 $134M -$133M $134M -$129M
2023 $97.1M -$130M $88.2M -$116M
2024 $101M -$119M -$85.4M -$110M
2025 $21.0M -$143M $11.4M -$133M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $7.9M -$30.5M
Sep 2025 $3.3M -$34.7M
Dec 2025 $6.2M -$37.3M
Mar 2026 $1.0M -$22.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership9.7%
Institutional Ownership82.2%
Short Float5.6%
% of All Funds Holding1.52%
Number of Funds Holding125

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.91Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$1.91Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$1.83Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.58Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$1.90Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$1.81Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$3.76Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$2.80 resistance 3.91x 8 months ago
$5.00 resistance 2.11x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (30 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.83% -0.99% 33.33% 12.02% -52.02%
1 Day 0.32% -0.37% 50.00% 47.26% -49.84%
1 Week -2.70% -3.48% 33.33% 54.11% -51.71%
2 Weeks -2.34% -3.16% 46.67% 72.60% -60.90%
1 Month 0.61% 0.58% 51.72% 94.52% -61.37%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (25 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.2%42.9%7
Feb6.8%42.9%7
Mar-11.7%12.5%8
Apr-3.6%50.0%8
May1.6%37.5%8
Jun-1.2%50.0%8
Jul6.3%85.7%7
Aug-0.1%42.9%7
Sep-3.1%28.6%7
Oct-9.4%28.6%7
Nov-2.2%42.9%7
Dec7.7%57.1%7

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.13% 50.4% 349
Tuesday 0.12% 50.4% 385
Wednesday -0.23% 51.2% 381
Thursday -0.32% 47.7% 373
Friday 0.65% 49.2% 372

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 82.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 9.7%

Founder-led management: Arnon Rosenthal (Co-Founder, CEO & Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings19
Net Value-$968,877.402
Net Shares Change-552,666
% of Float-0.6%
C-Suite Filings18
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Rosenthal Arnon Chief Executive Officer -$346,012.38 2 2 sell
Berkley Neil Lindsay CFO & Chief Business Officer -$142,891.649 3 3 sell
Kenkare-Mitra Sara President and Head of R&D -$105,692.124 2 2 sell
Wong-Sarad Grace Principal Accounting Officer -$41,588.218 3 3 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-27 – 2025-09-04 5 5 -$275,067.754 4 C-suite
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-08 5 4 -$219,986.904 5 C-suite
2026-02-26 – 2026-03-12 5 3 -$273,773.246 5 C-suite
2026-06-03 – 2026-06-03 3 3 -$228,224.499 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-03 Wong-Sarad Grace Principal Accounting Officer -$17,813.438 Transaction at $1.93, now -16.5%
2026-06-03 Berkley Neil Lindsay CFO & Chief Business Officer -$38,220.512 Transaction at $1.97, now -18.4%
2026-06-03 Rosenthal Arnon Chief Executive Officer -$172,190.549 Transaction at $1.97, now -18.5%
2026-03-03 Berkley Neil Lindsay CFO & Chief Business Officer -$62,953.722 Transaction at $2.12, now -24.2%
2026-03-03 Rosenthal Arnon Chief Executive Officer -$173,821.831 Transaction at $2.12, now -24.2%
2025-12-03 Wong-Sarad Grace Principal Accounting Officer -$9,018.692 Transaction at $1.12, now +43.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Alector Inc (ALEC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALEC on Trend Edge →