ALDX — Aldeyra The

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ALDX Bearish with a Setup Score of 43, net conviction 34, actionability 54. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score43
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction34
Actionability54 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Aldeyra The

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers and develops therapies designed to treat immune-mediated diseases. Its lead product candidate is reproxalap, a reactive aldehyde species (RASP) modulator, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis; and ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor for the treatment of primary vitreoretinal lymphoma and retinitis pigmentosa. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.55
Market Cap$90.5M
Float48.9M
Shares Outstanding60.3M
vs. Analyst Target+325.8% to analyst PT
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$6.60 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 N/A -$37.6M -$56,221 -$34.3M
2021 N/A -$57.8M -$264,180 -$55.8M
2022 N/A -$62.0M -$258,707 -$60.1M
2023 N/A -$37.5M -$262,780 -$35.2M
2024 N/A -$55.9M -$249,623 -$53.7M
2025 N/A -$33.8M -$251,993 -$31.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 N/A -$7.7M
Dec 2025 N/A -$6.5M
Mar 2026 N/A -$3.5M
Jun 2026 N/A -$5.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.6%
Institutional Ownership61.6%
Short Float7.0%
% of All Funds Holding1.23%
Number of Funds Holding108

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.71Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$3.01Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$3.75Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.87Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$3.17Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$3.88Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.42Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.40 resistance 4.45x 4 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (50 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.44% 0.10% 50.00% 8.26% -5.93%
1 Day 0.68% 1.73% 58.00% 18.59% -11.67%
1 Week -0.53% -2.28% 38.00% 59.01% -61.24%
2 Weeks -0.26% -2.73% 38.78% 50.88% -62.10%
1 Month 3.58% -0.71% 48.98% 71.02% -60.81%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan7.1%58.3%12
Feb-0.0%58.3%12
Mar-4.9%41.7%12
Apr-1.6%41.7%12
May2.4%41.7%12
Jun4.7%38.5%13
Jul2.7%53.8%13
Aug5.1%50.0%12
Sep17.0%50.0%12
Oct-9.2%41.7%12
Nov8.0%66.7%12
Dec-3.2%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.24% 42.9% 581
Tuesday 0.34% 49.1% 638
Wednesday 0.02% 46.5% 635
Thursday 0.25% 44.4% 622
Friday 0.30% 48.1% 619

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 61.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+$425,550
Net Shares Change325,000
% of Float0.7%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Brady Todd C President and CEO +$418,450 1 1 buy
DOUGLAS RICHARD +$98,000 1 1 buy
Alfieri Michael Principal Financial Officer +$7,100 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-05 Brady Todd C President and CEO +$418,450 Transaction at $1.67, now -7.4%
2026-03-19 Alfieri Michael Principal Financial Officer +$7,100 Transaction at $1.42, now +9.2%
2026-03-20 DOUGLAS RICHARD +$98,000 Transaction at $1.40, now +10.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Aldeyra The (ALDX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALDX on Trend Edge →