ALDX — Aldeyra The

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Aldeyra The

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers and develops therapies designed to treat immune-mediated diseases. Its lead product candidate is reproxalap, a reactive aldehyde species (RASP) modulator, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis; and ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor for the treatment of primary vitreoretinal lymphoma and retinitis pigmentosa. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.68
Market Cap$99.8M
Float48.7M
Shares Outstanding60.3M
vs. Analyst Target+352.4% to analyst PT
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$7.60 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 N/A -$37.6M -$56,221 -$34.3M
2021 N/A -$57.8M -$264,180 -$55.8M
2022 N/A -$62.0M -$258,707 -$60.1M
2023 N/A -$37.5M -$262,780 -$35.2M
2024 N/A -$55.9M -$249,623 -$53.7M
2025 N/A -$33.8M -$251,993 -$31.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 N/A -$9.8M
Sep 2025 N/A -$7.7M
Dec 2025 N/A -$6.5M
Mar 2026 N/A -$3.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.2%
Institutional Ownership65.8%
Short Float15.1%
% of All Funds Holding1.37%
Number of Funds Holding113

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.95Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$4.35Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.40Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$5.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$4.25Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.37Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.95Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.40 resistance 4.45x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (49 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.48% 0.00% 42.86% 10.29% -10.39%
1 Day -0.24% -0.74% 44.90% 16.27% -13.26%
1 Week -0.66% 0.74% 51.02% 37.47% -61.24%
2 Weeks -0.80% -4.06% 36.73% 44.71% -62.10%
1 Month 2.95% 2.44% 52.08% 71.33% -68.29%

Next earnings: May 13, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan7.1%58.3%12
Feb-0.0%58.3%12
Mar-4.9%41.7%12
Apr-1.6%41.7%12
May1.2%36.4%11
Jun3.3%33.3%12
Jul5.3%58.3%12
Aug5.1%50.0%12
Sep17.0%50.0%12
Oct-9.2%41.7%12
Nov8.0%66.7%12
Dec-3.2%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.26% 42.9% 567
Tuesday 0.33% 49.4% 623
Wednesday -0.01% 46.3% 620
Thursday 0.30% 44.6% 607
Friday 0.33% 48.3% 606

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 65.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$93,363.474
Net Shares Change55,427
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Machatha Stephen Chief Development Officer -$113,713.474 1 1 sell
DOUGLAS RICHARD +$98,000 1 1 buy
Alfieri Michael Principal Financial Officer +$20,350 2 2 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-19 Alfieri Michael Principal Financial Officer +$7,100 Transaction at $1.42, now +18.3%
2026-03-20 DOUGLAS RICHARD +$98,000 Transaction at $1.40, now +20.0%
2025-08-15 Alfieri Michael Principal Financial Officer +$13,250 Transaction at $5.30, now -68.3%
2025-08-13 Machatha Stephen Chief Development Officer -$113,713.474 Transaction at $5.15, now -67.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Aldeyra The (ALDX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALDX on Trend Edge →