AGM — Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AGM Bullish with a Setup Score of 47, net conviction 35, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score47
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction35
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through seven segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. The Farm & Ranch segment includes the USDA Securities portfolio, Farm & Ranch loans, and AgVantage securities secured by Farm & Ranch loans. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$219.71
Market Cap$2.40B
Float10.2M
Shares Outstanding9.3M
P/E (Forward)10.95
P/E (TTM)12.41
Price/Sales (TTM)5.86
vs. Analyst Target+17.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin56.03%
Operating Margin (TTM)69.73%
Revenue (TTM)$409M
Earnings Growth (YoY)20.80%
Dividend Rate6.3%
Analyst Target Price$257.00 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $207M $109M $207M $146M
2021 $448M $136M $246M $173M
2022 $755M $178M $308M $226M
2023 $1.42B $200M $350M $253M
2024 $1.62B $207M $364M $258M
2025 $1.32B $207M $389M $256M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $421M $55.0M
Dec 2025 $108M $47.9M
Mar 2026 $424M $59.1M
Jun 2026 $436M $67.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.6%
Institutional Ownership88.5%
Short Float3.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.90%
Number of Funds Holding255

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$214.98Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$180.79Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$181.76Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$172.85Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$182.08Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$183.98Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$180.87Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$201.00 support 1.23x 0 months ago
$178.00 support 1.50x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (118 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.02% 0.01% 50.00% 6.75% -14.33%
1 Day -0.65% 0.01% 50.00% 16.31% -19.03%
1 Week -0.43% 0.36% 50.85% 20.19% -35.45%
2 Weeks -0.55% -0.06% 50.00% 36.01% -28.71%
1 Month 0.03% 0.38% 50.43% 84.73% -57.96%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.0%46.9%32
Feb2.5%50.0%32
Mar-1.7%33.3%33
Apr6.9%57.6%33
May2.9%54.5%33
Jun0.4%51.5%33
Jul3.2%60.6%33
Aug3.3%56.3%32
Sep-1.3%34.4%32
Oct6.5%68.8%32
Nov1.8%50.0%32
Dec3.2%59.4%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.13% 45.7% 1538
Tuesday 0.07% 44.2% 1681
Wednesday 0.25% 45.3% 1679
Thursday 0.02% 44.6% 1647
Friday 0.14% 46.7% 1640

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 88.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$1.3M
Net Shares Change-5,597
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
NORDHOLM BRADFORD T President and CEO -$870,648.768 1 1 sell
Ramsey Gregory Principal Accounting Officer -$310,065.15 1 1 sell
Carpenter Zachary EVP - Chief Business Officer -$95,467.684 1 2 sell
Brinch Brian M EVP - Chief Risk Officer -$53,773.14 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-28 – 2025-08-28 3 3 -$1.3M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-05 Brinch Brian M EVP - Chief Risk Officer -$53,773.14 Transaction at $198.77, now +10.5%
2025-08-28 Carpenter Zachary EVP - Chief Business Officer -$95,467.684 Transaction at $184.37, now +19.2%
2025-08-28 Ramsey Gregory Principal Accounting Officer -$310,065.15 Transaction at $206.71, now +6.3%
2025-08-28 NORDHOLM BRADFORD T President and CEO -$870,648.768 Transaction at $206.12, now +6.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AGM on Trend Edge →