UFCS — United Fire Group Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates UFCS Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 49, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction49
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About United Fire Group Inc

United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. It provides property and casualty insurance, and surety bonds; and fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety to small business owners and middle market businesses operating in industries, such as construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$51.68
Market Cap$1.33B
Float22.1M
Shares Outstanding25.7M
P/E (Forward)14.10
P/E (TTM)10.47
Price/Sales (TTM)0.94
vs. Analyst Target-1.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.16%
Operating Margin (TTM)11.15%
Revenue (TTM)$1.42B
Earnings Growth (YoY)71.60%
Dividend Rate0.8%
Analyst Target Price$51.00 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.08B -$113M -$1.5M -$163M
2021 $1.06B $80.6M $201M $107M
2022 $988M $15.0M $138M $22.9M
2023 $1.10B -$29.7M $83.9M -$26.0M
2024 $1.25B $62.0M $226M $95.2M
2025 $1.39B $118M $622M $170M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $337M $22.9M
Sep 2025 $354M $39.2M
Dec 2025 $366M $38.4M
Mar 2026 $369M $30.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership17.3%
Institutional Ownership68.7%
Short Float1.2%
% of All Funds Holding2.46%
Number of Funds Holding202

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$48.79Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$39.42Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$33.80Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$27.84Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$40.38Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$34.35Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$28.25Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$45.00 support 1.33x 0 months ago
$41.00 support 1.11x 1 months ago
$36.00 support 1.10x 4 months ago
$30.30 support 1.02x 7 months ago
$24.20 support 1.22x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.25% 0.02% 50.44% 13.05% -6.22%
1 Day 0.05% -0.32% 44.25% 24.13% -17.73%
1 Week 0.49% -0.38% 46.90% 27.65% -16.34%
2 Weeks 1.27% 0.66% 55.75% 38.23% -20.30%
1 Month 1.46% 0.27% 51.79% 55.09% -41.83%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (22 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.6%45.7%46
Feb1.0%58.7%46
Mar2.3%58.7%46
Apr-0.2%46.8%47
May3.3%53.2%47
Jun0.0%59.6%47
Jul1.0%47.8%46
Aug-0.2%32.6%46
Sep0.1%45.7%46
Oct-1.8%43.5%46
Nov3.1%60.9%46
Dec4.1%63.0%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.00% 36.3% 2206
Tuesday 0.12% 38.1% 2393
Wednesday 0.04% 38.2% 2392
Thursday 0.07% 37.1% 2346
Friday 0.05% 37.4% 2330

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 68.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 17.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value+$14,500
Net Shares Change-530,535
% of Float-2.4%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
McIntyre Dee Ann -$699,221.925 2 2 sell
Drahozal Christopher R -$489,890.7 1 1 sell
MILLIGAN GEORGE D +$217,417.858 2 2 buy
BESONG JOHN PAUL E -$74,771.681 2 1 buy, 1 sell
Martin Eric J Chief Financial Officer +$14,500 1 1 buy
Clancy Brenda Kay +$0.243 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-13 – 2026-01-13 3 3 +$18,136.905

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-08 MILLIGAN GEORGE D +$203,535 Transaction at $45.23, now +14.3%
2026-01-13 MILLIGAN GEORGE D +$13,882.858 Transaction at $32.44, now +59.3%
2026-01-13 Clancy Brenda Kay +$0.243 Transaction at $32.44, now +59.3%
2026-01-13 BESONG JOHN PAUL E +$4,253.804 Transaction at $32.24, now +60.3%
2025-08-15 Martin Eric J Chief Financial Officer +$14,500 Transaction at $29.00, now +78.2%
2026-02-06 McIntyre Dee Ann -$209,332.5 Transaction at $27.91, now +85.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for UFCS on Trend Edge →