ACIC — American Coastal Insurance Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ACIC Bearish with a Setup Score of 46, net conviction 34, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score46
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction34
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About American Coastal Insurance Corp

American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company provides structure, content, and liability coverage for standard single-family homeowners, renters, and condominium unit owners. It also offers commercial multi-peril property insurance for residential condominium associations and apartments, as well as covera… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.51
Market Cap$437M
Float22.8M
Shares Outstanding47.3M
P/E (Forward)7.12
P/E (TTM)4.47
Price/Sales (TTM)1.32
vs. Analyst Target+36.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin30.31%
Operating Margin (TTM)37.28%
Revenue (TTM)$331M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-16.60%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$13.00 (1 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $847M -$96.5M $2.3M -$111M
2021 $229M -$57.9M $46.4M $10.7M
2022 $221M -$470M $43.7M $34.5M
2023 $264M $310M $142M $118M
2024 $297M $75.7M $156M $123M
2025 $335M $107M $289M $174M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $90.3M $32.5M
Dec 2025 $86.4M $26.6M
Mar 2026 $71.2M $19.3M
Jun 2026 $82.5M $21.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership50.6%
Institutional Ownership35.4%
Short Float7.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.55%
Number of Funds Holding136

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.53Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$10.67Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$10.98Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.57Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$10.58Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$11.00Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.82Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$10.70 resistance 1.27x 1 months ago
$11.90 resistance 1.44x 4 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (73 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.61% 0.00% 39.73% 14.67% -35.71%
1 Day -1.71% 0.00% 32.88% 38.10% -46.34%
1 Week -0.50% -0.39% 36.99% 51.83% -29.76%
2 Weeks -0.55% 0.00% 42.47% 32.98% -25.00%
1 Month -0.42% -1.35% 43.84% 37.14% -28.57%

Next earnings: November 4, 2026 (26 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.2%42.1%19
Feb4.5%42.1%19
Mar4.9%31.6%19
Apr-2.9%26.3%19
May1.2%57.9%19
Jun-1.0%42.1%19
Jul-4.6%31.6%19
Aug0.4%47.4%19
Sep-2.7%52.6%19
Oct-1.7%44.4%18
Nov1.6%61.1%18
Dec17.3%63.2%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.19% 38.0% 893
Tuesday -0.02% 37.8% 977
Wednesday -0.01% 36.6% 976
Thursday 0.16% 38.1% 957
Friday 0.12% 35.9% 952

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 35.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 50.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$590,127.398
Net Shares Change-46,005
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Griffith Christopher Chief Operating Officer -$525,063.638 2 2 sell
Adler Brooke Secretary -$192,035.76 1 1 sell
MARTZ BRAD President & CEO +$91,500 1 1 buy
Crawford Troy J Chief Underwriting Officer +$35,472 1 1 buy
DAVIS KERN MICHAEL +$27,548 3 3 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-24 MARTZ BRAD President & CEO +$91,500 Transaction at $9.15, now +3.9%
2026-09-25 Adler Brooke Secretary -$192,035.76 Transaction at $9.06, now +5.0%
2026-08-19 Griffith Christopher Chief Operating Officer -$306,732.898 Transaction at $6.87, now +38.5%
2026-02-24 Crawford Troy J Chief Underwriting Officer +$35,472 Transaction at $11.09, now -14.2%
2026-03-23 DAVIS KERN MICHAEL +$2,210 Transaction at $11.05, now -13.9%
2026-03-19 DAVIS KERN MICHAEL +$8,944 Transaction at $11.18, now -14.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ACIC on Trend Edge →