TRV — The Travelers Companies Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TRV Bullish with a Setup Score of 9, net conviction 45, actionability 2. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score9
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction45
Actionability2 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About The Travelers Companies Inc

The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$371.15
Market Cap$76.02B
Float207.4M
Shares Outstanding208.6M
P/E (Forward)12.35
P/E (TTM)9.74
Price/Sales (TTM)1.55
vs. Analyst Target-2.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin16.95%
Operating Margin (TTM)23.70%
Revenue (TTM)$48.98B
Earnings Growth (YoY)57.10%
Dividend Rate5.0%
Analyst Target Price$360.33 (28 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $31.98B $2.70B $8.09B $4.37B
2021 $34.82B $3.66B $9.47B $5.67B
2022 $36.90B $2.84B $8.53B $4.53B
2023 $41.37B $2.99B $8.93B $4.47B
2024 $46.43B $5.00B $12.40B $7.29B
2025 $48.83B $6.29B $14.34B $8.90B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $12.47B $1.89B
Dec 2025 $12.43B $2.50B
Mar 2026 $11.92B $1.71B
Jun 2026 $12.15B $2.21B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership91.5%
Short Float3.6%
% of All Funds Holding20.73%
Number of Funds Holding1,823

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$362.86Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$312.07Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$289.34Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$236.55Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$314.04Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$289.77Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$247.48Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$332.00 support 1.37x 0 months ago
$290.00 support 1.45x 1 months ago
$286.00 support 1.16x 5 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (124 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.13% 0.08% 54.03% 4.41% -3.22%
1 Day 0.44% 0.40% 62.90% 9.82% -8.82%
1 Week 1.14% 0.95% 60.48% 20.78% -12.47%
2 Weeks 1.39% 1.31% 61.29% 22.60% -20.25%
1 Month 2.28% 2.31% 63.41% 21.58% -26.18%

Next earnings: October 15, 2026 (49 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.2%51.0%51
Feb0.8%58.8%51
Mar1.9%60.8%51
Apr0.6%54.9%51
May0.4%54.9%51
Jun-1.3%54.9%51
Jul0.6%47.1%51
Aug0.6%52.0%50
Sep0.3%52.0%50
Oct2.6%66.0%50
Nov3.3%74.0%50
Dec1.5%64.7%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 45.7% 2397
Tuesday 0.03% 47.1% 2599
Wednesday 0.05% 49.1% 2600
Thursday 0.10% 49.5% 2550
Friday 0.11% 50.3% 2535

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 91.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings41
Net Value-$102M
Net Shares Change-23,523
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings41
Clusters Detected6

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lefebvre Mojgan M EVP & Chief Tech & Ops Officer -$3.8M 1 1 sell
Frey Daniel S. EVP & Chief Financial Officer -$3.1M 1 1 sell
Klenk Jeffrey P. EVP & Pres., Bond & Spec. Ins. -$2.0M 1 1 sell
Yin Daniel Tei-Hwa EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer -$1.8M 1 1 sell
Kurtzman Diane EVP & Chief HR Officer -$1.7M 2 2 sell
Klein Michael Frederick EVP & President, Personal Ins. -$1.4M 1 1 sell
Rowland David Donnay EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer -$1.2M 1 1 sell
BESSETTE ANDY F EVP and Chief Admin Officer -$1.1M 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-29 – 2025-11-12 3 3 -$5.6M 3 C-suite
2025-11-14 – 2025-11-26 5 3 -$2.8M 5 C-suite
2026-01-26 – 2026-02-09 5 5 -$43.2M 5 C-suite
2026-02-19 – 2026-02-27 10 9 -$20.6M 10 C-suite
2026-04-21 – 2026-04-29 5 5 -$9.2M 5 C-suite
2026-07-23 – 2026-07-27 8 8 -$13.8M 8 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-24 BESSETTE ANDY F EVP and Chief Admin Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $368.11, now +0.8%
2026-07-27 Yin Daniel Tei-Hwa EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer -$1.8M Transaction at $263.93, now +40.6%
2026-07-27 Kurtzman Diane EVP & Chief HR Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $259.64, now +42.9%
2026-07-24 Rowland David Donnay EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer -$1.2M Transaction at $252.13, now +47.2%
2026-07-23 Lefebvre Mojgan M EVP & Chief Tech & Ops Officer -$3.8M Transaction at $252.06, now +47.2%
2026-07-23 Klein Michael Frederick EVP & President, Personal Ins. -$1.4M Transaction at $252.96, now +46.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TRV on Trend Edge →