Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates TXO Bullish with a Setup Score of 12, net conviction 22, actionability 7. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 12 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bullish |
| Net Conviction | 22 |
| Actionability | 7 (in range) |
TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $13.13 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $724M |
| Float | 39.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 55.2M |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 2.10 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +52.3% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | -28.52% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | -274.26% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $345M |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | 1436.80% |
| Dividend Rate | 1.5% |
| Analyst Target Price | $20.00 (3 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $109M | -$163M | $17.3M | -$113M |
| 2021 | $228M | $52.5M | $119M | $98.2M |
| 2022 | $246M | -$7.7M | $77.4M | $41.9M |
| 2023 | $381M | -$104M | $192M | -$46.6M |
| 2024 | $283M | $23.5M | $80.1M | $95.4M |
| 2025 | $411M | -$21.6M | $43.7M | $91.9M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $89.9M | -$135,000 |
| Sep 2025 | $101M | $4.4M |
| Dec 2025 | $136M | -$28.3M |
| Mar 2026 | $28.3M | -$74.3M |
| Insider Ownership | 29.4% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 29.1% |
| Short Float | 2.5% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 0.61% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 50 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $12.96 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $12.39 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $14.37 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $0.00 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $12.42 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $14.41 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $17.11 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $14.00 | resistance | 1.16x | 8 months ago |
| $15.10 | resistance | 1.17x | 10 months ago |
| $16.70 | resistance | 3.12x | 13 months ago |
| $21.40 | resistance | 1.67x | 24 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 1.03% | 0.22% | 69.23% | 6.62% | -1.00% |
| 1 Day | 1.25% | 0.50% | 76.92% | 6.79% | -0.68% |
| 1 Week | 2.85% | 1.36% | 61.54% | 22.74% | -5.34% |
| 2 Weeks | 0.47% | -0.77% | 23.08% | 24.03% | -9.52% |
| 1 Month | -2.94% | -4.40% | 25.00% | 19.31% | -10.71% |
Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (21 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | -0.01% | 45.4% | 163 |
| Tuesday | -0.02% | 48.6% | 179 |
| Wednesday | 0.02% | 48.0% | 177 |
| Thursday | -0.06% | 45.3% | 172 |
| Friday | -0.15% | 48.0% | 173 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 29.1%
Total insider ownership: 29.4%
Founder-led management: Brent W. Clum (Co-Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Director)
| Total Filings | 14 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | -$1.1M |
| Net Shares Change | 2,742,461 |
| % of Float | 6.9% |
| C-Suite Filings | 5 |
| Clusters Detected | 1 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIMPSON BOB R | +$31.0M | 7 | 7 buy | |
| ADAMS WILLIAM H III | +$124,117 | 1 | 1 buy | |
| Simpson Gary D. | Co-Chief Executive Officer | -$98,080.82 | 1 | N/A |
| KEVIL PHILLIP R | +$23,800 | 1 | 1 buy |
| Period | Filings | Insiders | Net Value | Seniority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 – 2026-02-03 | 3 | 3 | -$463,319.02 | 3 C-suite |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | SIMPSON BOB R | +$1.3M | Transaction at $12.61, now +4.1% | |
| 2026-05-11 | SIMPSON BOB R | +$9.5M | Transaction at $12.61, now +4.1% | |
| 2026-06-03 | SIMPSON BOB R | +$8.2M | Transaction at $13.72, now -4.3% | |
| 2026-05-11 | ADAMS WILLIAM H III | +$124,117 | Transaction at $12.41, now +5.8% | |
| 2026-05-26 | SIMPSON BOB R | +$5.3M | Transaction at $13.68, now -4.0% | |
| 2026-05-15 | SIMPSON BOB R | +$3.9M | Transaction at $12.97, now +1.2% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for TXO on Trend Edge →