GTE — Gran Tierra Energy Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates GTE Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 24, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction24
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About Gran Tierra Energy Inc

Gran Tierra Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia, Canada, and Ecuador. The company has a strategic partnership with Ecopetrol S.A. for the development of fields in the Middle Magdalena Valley. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.95
Market Cap$345M
Float30.0M
Shares Outstanding35.4M
P/E (Forward)14.71
Price/Sales (TTM)0.54
vs. Analyst Target-34.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-40.01%
Operating Margin (TTM)37.61%
Revenue (TTM)$638M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-81.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$6.49 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $238M -$778M -$48.8M -$635M
2021 $474M $42.5M $190M $217M
2022 $711M $139M $359M $475M
2023 $637M -$6.3M $220M $378M
2024 $622M $3.2M $170M $356M
2025 $597M -$193M $52.6M $147M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $149M -$19.9M
Dec 2025 $124M -$141M
Mar 2026 $172M -$119M
Jun 2026 $187M $24.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.0%
Institutional Ownership58.4%
Short Float6.7%
% of All Funds Holding0.78%
Number of Funds Holding69

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$7.78Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$7.00Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.74Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$6.72Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$6.99Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.77Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$6.33Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$7.20 support 2.65x 0 months ago
$5.20 support 1.26x 5 months ago
$4.30 support 1.52x 6 months ago
$3.50 support 1.67x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (77 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.64% -0.36% 41.56% 51.24% -13.68%
1 Day 0.47% -0.46% 41.56% 38.21% -13.12%
1 Week 0.29% -1.16% 40.26% 36.90% -16.74%
2 Weeks 1.54% -1.11% 44.16% 120.83% -21.33%
1 Month 0.85% 1.63% 52.63% 56.25% -38.00%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan8.3%61.9%21
Feb3.4%52.4%21
Mar2.4%66.7%21
Apr5.5%52.4%21
May-4.6%42.9%21
Jun3.1%47.6%21
Jul-0.9%47.6%21
Aug-2.3%35.0%20
Sep-3.1%50.0%20
Oct-2.1%45.0%20
Nov2.8%60.0%20
Dec2.3%60.0%20

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.03% 42.1% 973
Tuesday 0.13% 45.5% 1067
Wednesday 0.12% 45.4% 1067
Thursday 0.02% 45.3% 1048
Friday 0.14% 46.6% 1042

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 58.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings37
Net Value-$2.3M
Net Shares Change-321,545
% of Float-1.1%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Equinox Partners Investment Management LLC -$27.5M 4 4 sell
LM Asset Management Inc. +$3.0M 6 6 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-01 – 2025-10-08 4 3 -$7,810.54
2025-12-16 – 2025-12-22 3 3 +$1.9M 1 C-suite
2026-01-06 – 2026-01-09 5 4 +$1.0M
2026-04-02 – 2026-04-14 6 5 -$2.4M 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-05 LM Asset Management Inc. +$399,527.2 Transaction at $6.89, now +44.4%
2026-06-29 LM Asset Management Inc. +$193,136 Transaction at $6.04, now +64.9%
2026-06-09 LM Asset Management Inc. +$634,843.4 Transaction at $7.38, now +34.8%
2026-08-10 Equinox Partners Investment Management LLC -$15.4M Transaction at $9.64, now +3.2%
2026-08-17 Equinox Partners Investment Management LLC -$6.3M Transaction at $9.27, now +7.3%
2026-08-13 Equinox Partners Investment Management LLC -$3.9M Transaction at $9.38, now +6.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Gran Tierra Energy Inc (GTE) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for GTE on Trend Edge →