TPL — Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TPL Bullish with a Setup Score of 16, net conviction 27, actionability 9. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score16
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction27
Actionability9 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin. This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$369.40
Market Cap$25.49B
Float58.9M
Shares Outstanding69.0M
P/E (Forward)37.74
P/E (TTM)47.62
Price/Sales (TTM)28.40
vs. Analyst Target+19.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin60.32%
Operating Margin (TTM)78.18%
Revenue (TTM)$898M
Earnings Growth (YoY)32.70%
Dividend Rate2.4%
Analyst Target Price$442.00 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $303M $176M $270M $232M
2021 $451M $270M $421M $379M
2022 $667M $446M $635M $578M
2023 $632M $406M $583M $501M
2024 $706M $454M $635M $604M
2025 $798M $481M $682M $655M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $203M $121M
Dec 2025 $212M $123M
Mar 2026 $237M $143M
Jun 2026 $246M $154M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership75.1%
Short Float7.3%
% of All Funds Holding9.81%
Number of Funds Holding863

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$389.07Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$393.85Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$378.84Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$298.31Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$396.88Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$386.57Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$312.41Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$538.00 resistance 1.17x 4 months ago
$340.00 support 1.43x 5 months ago
$534.00 resistance 1.34x 19 months ago
$207.00 support 2.70x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (110 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.10% 0.00% 45.45% 4.51% -9.59%
1 Day 0.46% 0.00% 49.09% 10.40% -11.86%
1 Week 0.98% 1.00% 55.45% 24.33% -31.36%
2 Weeks 0.49% 0.27% 52.73% 30.24% -29.23%
1 Month 2.01% 0.88% 53.21% 43.94% -24.74%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.6%50.0%46
Feb4.4%60.9%46
Mar3.1%63.0%46
Apr2.1%59.6%47
May2.5%53.2%47
Jun2.2%42.6%47
Jul1.2%46.8%47
Aug1.6%50.0%46
Sep-0.2%32.6%46
Oct-0.5%43.5%46
Nov2.8%47.8%46
Dec-0.3%39.1%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 42.0% 2213
Tuesday 0.08% 44.9% 2401
Wednesday 0.08% 43.2% 2399
Thursday 0.07% 42.8% 2353
Friday 0.17% 46.0% 2337

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings248
Net Value-$2.7M
Net Shares Change-4,248
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$3,653.64 10 10 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-13 – 2026-02-27 12 3 -$803,761.766 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-26 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$372.58 Transaction at $372.58, now -0.9%
2026-08-25 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$377.39 Transaction at $377.39, now -2.1%
2026-08-24 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$381.51 Transaction at $381.51, now -3.2%
2026-08-21 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$377.85 Transaction at $377.85, now -2.2%
2026-08-20 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$372.1 Transaction at $372.10, now -0.7%
2026-08-19 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC +$361.16 Transaction at $361.16, now +2.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TPL on Trend Edge →