TKR — Timken Company

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Timken Company

The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The Engineered Bearings segment provides various bearing products, including tapered, spherical, and cylindrical roller bearings; plain bearings, metal-polymer bearings, and rod end bearings; radial, an… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$127.16
Market Cap$8.26B
Float66.8M
Shares Outstanding69.5M
P/E (Forward)19.72
P/E (TTM)27.03
Price/Sales (TTM)1.77
vs. Analyst Target+2.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin6.60%
Operating Margin (TTM)14.03%
Revenue (TTM)$4.67B
Earnings Growth (YoY)26.10%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$129.82 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.51B $285M $1.02B $662M
2021 $4.13B $369M $1.16B $714M
2022 $4.50B $407M $1.34B $838M
2023 $4.77B $408M $4.77B $657M
2024 $4.57B $353M $1.45B $834M
2025 $4.58B $288M $1.31B $746M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.17B $78.5M
Sep 2025 $1.16B $69.3M
Dec 2025 $1.11B $62.3M
Mar 2026 $1.23B $98.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.9%
Institutional Ownership93.7%
Short Float3.8%
% of All Funds Holding6.01%
Number of Funds Holding494

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$110.67Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$92.68Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$83.21Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$80.38Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$93.66Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$84.15Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$83.00Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$111.00 support 1.42x 0 months ago
$93.00 support 1.34x 2 months ago
$85.00 support 1.02x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.11% 0.00% 47.15% 8.02% -11.44%
1 Day 0.57% 0.18% 52.85% 11.79% -14.04%
1 Week 0.89% 0.45% 51.22% 27.95% -17.98%
2 Weeks 2.05% 2.58% 60.98% 31.80% -21.93%
1 Month 1.49% 1.50% 56.56% 28.08% -26.73%

Next earnings: July 25, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.2%52.9%51
Feb0.5%52.9%51
Mar1.8%56.9%51
Apr4.7%72.5%51
May1.1%56.0%50
Jun-0.5%40.0%50
Jul-0.9%42.0%50
Aug-0.7%42.0%50
Sep-2.5%38.0%50
Oct-1.5%42.0%50
Nov3.2%68.0%50
Dec2.4%56.9%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.06% 46.9% 2384
Tuesday 0.09% 48.0% 2587
Wednesday 0.00% 45.3% 2587
Thursday 0.04% 47.4% 2537
Friday 0.03% 46.8% 2524

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 93.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.9%

Founder-led management: John M. Timken, Jr. (Chairman), Ward J. Timken, Jr. (Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value-$817,218.8
Net Shares Change-130,017
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kyle Richard G -$12.2M 5 5 sell
TIMKEN JOHN M JR -$1.7M 1 1 sell
Patel Hansal N. EVP, GC and Secretary -$698,703.3 2 2 sell
Discenza Michael Anthony EVP, Chief Financial Officer -$118,515.5 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-11 Kyle Richard G -$4.4M Transaction at $117.34, now +8.4%
2026-05-11 TIMKEN JOHN M JR -$1.7M Transaction at $116.51, now +9.1%
2026-02-26 Discenza Michael Anthony EVP, Chief Financial Officer -$118,515.5 Transaction at $87.94, now +44.6%
2026-02-10 Patel Hansal N. EVP, GC and Secretary -$313,321.95 Transaction at $106.17, now +19.8%
2025-08-27 Patel Hansal N. EVP, GC and Secretary -$385,381.35 Transaction at $79.15, now +60.7%
2026-02-24 Kyle Richard G -$2.1M Transaction at $107.99, now +17.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Timken Company (TKR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TKR on Trend Edge →