TKR — Timken Company

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TKR Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 44, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction44
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About Timken Company

The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The Engineered Bearings segment provides various bearing products, including tapered, spherical, and cylindrical roller bearings; plain bearings, metal-polymer bearings, and rod end bearings; radial, an… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$122.33
Market Cap$8.63B
Float66.6M
Shares Outstanding69.3M
P/E (Forward)21.55
P/E (TTM)34.02
Price/Sales (TTM)1.81
vs. Analyst Target+20.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.44%
Operating Margin (TTM)13.65%
Revenue (TTM)$4.76B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-63.40%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$147.20 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.51B $285M $1.02B $662M
2021 $4.13B $369M $1.16B $714M
2022 $4.50B $407M $1.34B $838M
2023 $4.77B $408M $4.77B $657M
2024 $4.57B $353M $1.45B $834M
2025 $4.58B $288M $1.31B $746M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.16B $69.3M
Dec 2025 $1.11B $62.3M
Mar 2026 $1.23B $98.2M
Jun 2026 $1.26B $28.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.9%
Institutional Ownership97.3%
Short Float4.6%
% of All Funds Holding6.80%
Number of Funds Holding598

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$134.56Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$111.73Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$92.79Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$84.97Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$111.17Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$92.86Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$87.05Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$136.00 resistance 1.05x 0 months ago
$111.00 support 1.54x 2 months ago
$93.00 support 1.34x 5 months ago
$85.00 support 1.02x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (124 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.11% 0.00% 46.77% 8.02% -11.44%
1 Day 0.56% 0.17% 52.42% 11.79% -14.04%
1 Week 0.87% 0.37% 50.81% 27.95% -17.98%
2 Weeks 1.99% 2.51% 60.48% 31.80% -21.93%
1 Month 1.59% 1.57% 56.91% 28.08% -26.73%

Next earnings: October 23, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.2%52.9%51
Feb0.5%52.9%51
Mar1.8%56.9%51
Apr4.7%72.5%51
May1.4%56.9%51
Jun-0.2%41.2%51
Jul-1.0%41.2%51
Aug-0.7%42.0%50
Sep-2.5%38.0%50
Oct-1.5%42.0%50
Nov3.2%68.0%50
Dec2.4%56.9%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.06% 47.0% 2397
Tuesday 0.09% 48.1% 2599
Wednesday -0.00% 45.2% 2600
Thursday 0.04% 47.5% 2550
Friday 0.03% 46.9% 2535

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 97.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.9%

Founder-led management: John M. Timken, Jr. (Chairman), Ward J. Timken, Jr. (Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value-$817,218.8
Net Shares Change-160,552
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kyle Richard G -$12.7M 5 5 sell
TIMKEN JOHN M JR -$1.7M 1 1 sell
Rajendra Ajita G -$1.1M 1 1 sell
Patel Hansal N. EVP, GC and Secretary -$698,703.3 2 2 sell
Discenza Michael Anthony EVP, Chief Financial Officer -$118,515.5 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-11 Kyle Richard G -$1.7M Transaction at $126.63, now -3.4%
2026-06-08 Rajendra Ajita G -$1.1M Transaction at $131.34, now -6.9%
2026-05-28 Kyle Richard G -$1.1M Transaction at $127.35, now -3.9%
2026-05-11 Kyle Richard G -$4.4M Transaction at $117.34, now +4.3%
2025-08-27 Patel Hansal N. EVP, GC and Secretary -$385,381.35 Transaction at $79.15, now +54.6%
2026-05-11 TIMKEN JOHN M JR -$1.7M Transaction at $116.51, now +5.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Timken Company (TKR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TKR on Trend Edge →