THG — The Hanover Insurance Group Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates THG Bullish with a Setup Score of 78, net conviction 67, actionability 91. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score78
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction67
Actionability91 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About The Hanover Insurance Group Inc

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates in four segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other. The company offers commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation, and other core commercial coverage; and professional and executive lines, marine, and su… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$227.47
Market Cap$7.77B
Float34.5M
Shares Outstanding34.8M
P/E (Forward)12.05
P/E (TTM)10.48
Price/Sales (TTM)1.15
vs. Analyst Target+4.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin11.17%
Operating Margin (TTM)14.76%
Revenue (TTM)$6.76B
Earnings Growth (YoY)24.90%
Dividend Rate3.8%
Analyst Target Price$236.50 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.82B $359M $1.02B $500M
2021 $5.16B $423M $1.04B $572M
2022 $5.43B $116M $716M $191M
2023 $5.96B $35.3M $653M $81.5M
2024 $6.22B $426M $1.24B $573M
2025 $6.60B $663M $2.87B $882M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.66B $179M
Dec 2025 $1.67B $199M
Mar 2026 $1.70B $187M
Jun 2026 $1.73B $192M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.0%
Institutional Ownership93.0%
Short Float2.2%
% of All Funds Holding6.21%
Number of Funds Holding546

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$221.72Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$191.18Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$180.88Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$151.39Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$194.45Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$182.58Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$156.44Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$216.00 support 1.25x 0 months ago
$186.00 support 1.20x 1 months ago
$173.00 support 1.01x 3 months ago
$162.00 support 1.07x 14 months ago
$152.00 support 1.29x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.21% 0.00% 48.78% 7.97% -9.59%
1 Day 0.71% 0.15% 52.85% 15.76% -7.41%
1 Week 1.16% 1.37% 62.60% 16.73% -14.73%
2 Weeks 1.26% 1.86% 63.41% 15.78% -18.05%
1 Month 1.57% 1.52% 54.10% 29.29% -25.65%

Next earnings: October 16, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.4%41.9%31
Feb1.4%61.3%31
Mar0.9%58.1%31
Apr0.8%48.4%31
May1.3%61.3%31
Jun1.6%58.1%31
Jul0.2%61.3%31
Aug-0.5%46.7%30
Sep-2.2%53.3%30
Oct-0.0%56.7%30
Nov5.0%80.6%31
Dec2.1%74.2%31

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 53.6% 1460
Tuesday 0.08% 51.3% 1595
Wednesday -0.01% 51.2% 1593
Thursday 0.05% 51.1% 1562
Friday 0.07% 49.0% 1555

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 93.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value-$11.9M
Net Shares Change-19,881
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
LAVEY RICHARD W Executive Vice President -$3.0M 1 1 sell
Salvatore Bryan J Executive Vice President -$1.3M 1 1 sell
Lowsley Denise Executive Vice President -$812,799.09 3 3 sell
Egan Cynthia -$640,900 1 1 sell
Kerrigan Dennis Francis Executive Vice President -$486,181.68 1 1 sell
Bunting Theodore H JR -$274,938 1 1 sell
Carlin Jane D -$231,500 1 1 sell
Lee Willard T Executive Vice President -$183,930 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-04 – 2026-05-15 4 3 -$1.3M 3 C-suite
2026-05-19 – 2026-05-26 4 3 -$5.8M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-04 Salvatore Bryan J Executive Vice President -$1.3M Transaction at $144.94, now +56.9%
2026-08-07 Bunting Theodore H JR -$274,938 Transaction at $229.12, now -0.7%
2026-08-04 Carlin Jane D -$231,500 Transaction at $231.50, now -1.7%
2026-05-04 Egan Cynthia -$640,900 Transaction at $188.50, now +20.7%
2026-05-21 Kerrigan Dennis Francis Executive Vice President -$486,181.68 Transaction at $154.17, now +47.5%
2026-05-15 Lowsley Denise Executive Vice President -$318,886.5 Transaction at $153.54, now +48.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for THG on Trend Edge →