SM — SM Energy Co

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SM Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 19, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction19
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About SM Energy Co

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$36.46
Market Cap$8.95B
Float222.5M
Shares Outstanding237.9M
P/E (Forward)5.17
P/E (TTM)6.40
Price/Sales (TTM)1.80
vs. Analyst Target+11.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin20.15%
Operating Margin (TTM)60.32%
Revenue (TTM)$4.96B
Earnings Growth (YoY)153.90%
Dividend Rate0.9%
Analyst Target Price$40.60 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.13B -$765M -$50.0M -$7.8M
2021 $2.60B $36.2M $1.32B $981M
2022 $3.35B $1.11B $2.12B $2.12B
2023 $2.36B $818M $1.11B $1.70B
2024 $2.67B $770M $1.23B $1.92B
2025 $3.15B $648M $1.00B $2.21B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $811M $155M
Dec 2025 $718M $109M
Mar 2026 $1.48B -$335M
Jun 2026 $2.50B $1.07B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership99.4%
Short Float5.7%
% of All Funds Holding5.60%
Number of Funds Holding493

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$31.43Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$26.74Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$26.06Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$33.87Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.84Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$27.09Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$34.13Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$24.60 support 1.91x 4 months ago
$18.90 support 2.40x 5 months ago
$37.70 resistance 1.14x 17 months ago
$50.00 resistance 1.43x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (124 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.33% 0.18% 55.65% 13.52% -10.80%
1 Day 0.22% -0.01% 48.39% 22.73% -21.05%
1 Week 1.35% 0.66% 54.03% 31.14% -34.30%
2 Weeks 1.89% 1.46% 54.84% 113.40% -41.21%
1 Month 4.27% 1.55% 60.16% 186.39% -86.08%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.5%50.0%34
Feb-0.4%52.9%34
Mar4.2%61.8%34
Apr11.8%61.8%34
May0.9%50.0%34
Jun1.2%47.1%34
Jul-2.0%50.0%34
Aug2.6%57.6%33
Sep2.5%54.5%33
Oct2.4%60.6%33
Nov2.0%33.3%33
Dec1.7%51.5%33

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 48.4% 1594
Tuesday 0.20% 49.2% 1741
Wednesday 0.09% 49.3% 1739
Thursday 0.02% 46.4% 1707
Friday 0.19% 51.2% 1696

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 99.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$647,850
Net Shares Change-42,053
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
PERU RAMIRO G -$834,310.94 1 1 sell
Lebeck James Barker EVP, GC & Corp Secretary -$647,850 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-24 Lebeck James Barker EVP, GC & Corp Secretary -$647,850 Transaction at $37.02, now -1.5%
2026-05-22 PERU RAMIRO G -$834,310.94 Transaction at $33.98, now +7.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for SM Energy Co (SM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SM on Trend Edge →