SCVL — Shoe Carnival Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Shoe Carnival Inc

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. It offers various products, including dress and casual shoes, sandals, boots, and athletic shoes; and non-athletics for men's, women's and children's shoes, as well as accessories. The company also operates stores. It sells its products through www.shoecarnival.com and www.shoestation.com, as well as through related mobile app. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$17.24
Market Cap$475M
Float18.0M
Shares Outstanding27.5M
P/E (Forward)11.51
P/E (TTM)12.79
Price/Sales (TTM)0.42
vs. Analyst Target+27.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.31%
Operating Margin (TTM)-2.23%
Revenue (TTM)$1.13B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-37.90%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$22.00 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $977M $16.0M $280M $80.1M
2022 $1.33B $155M $527M $269M
2023 $1.26B $110M $468M $218M
2024 $1.18B $73.3M $422M $125M
2025 $1.20B $73.8M $429M $129M
2026 $1.14B $52.3M $415M $101M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Apr 2025 $278M $9.3M
Jul 2025 $306M $19.2M
Oct 2025 $297M $14.6M
Jan 2026 $254M $9.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership34.0%
Institutional Ownership73.2%
Short Float16.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.68%
Number of Funds Holding138

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$17.32Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$18.90Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$21.34Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$25.78Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$18.40Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$21.60Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$25.78Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$15.80 support 1.04x 0 months ago
$22.00 resistance 1.63x 12 months ago
$26.30 resistance 1.08x 14 months ago
$33.30 resistance 1.28x 15 months ago
$43.00 resistance 1.33x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (97 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.07% 0.17% 55.67% 20.83% -15.87%
1 Day 1.47% 0.15% 50.52% 29.67% -13.61%
1 Week 1.41% 0.34% 52.58% 28.55% -18.29%
2 Weeks 3.04% 1.52% 58.76% 43.89% -19.15%
1 Month 1.60% 1.54% 54.64% 36.24% -24.08%

Next earnings: August 9, 2026 (73 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-2.8%36.4%33
Feb2.3%51.5%33
Mar5.6%63.6%33
Apr3.6%64.7%34
May2.6%57.6%33
Jun2.2%60.6%33
Jul-2.4%42.4%33
Aug3.2%54.5%33
Sep-4.2%39.4%33
Oct-2.1%42.4%33
Nov4.3%57.6%33
Dec4.4%54.5%33

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 45.2% 1570
Tuesday 0.10% 46.9% 1716
Wednesday 0.12% 47.5% 1714
Thursday 0.12% 47.8% 1681
Friday 0.09% 44.9% 1674

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 73.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 34.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+$500,030
Net Shares Change28,523
% of Float0.2%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
JACKSON W KERRY EVP - CFO +$500,030 1 1 buy
Guthrie Andrea R. -$50,047.785 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-04-06 JACKSON W KERRY EVP - CFO +$500,030 Transaction at $16.13, now +6.9%
2025-10-16 Guthrie Andrea R. -$50,047.785 Transaction at $20.20, now -14.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SCVL on Trend Edge →