SAFT — Safety Insurance Group Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SAFT Bearish with a Setup Score of 65, net conviction 44, actionability 95. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score65
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction44
Actionability95 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Safety Insurance Group Inc

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$75.55
Market Cap$1.11B
Float14.3M
Shares Outstanding14.7M
P/E (Forward)17.12
P/E (TTM)18.30
Price/Sales (TTM)0.87
vs. Analyst Target-7.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin4.94%
Operating Margin (TTM)-5.48%
Revenue (TTM)$1.28B
Earnings Growth (YoY)153.20%
Dividend Rate3.7%
Analyst Target Price$70.00

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $840M $138M $436M $183M
2021 $865M $131M $403M $172M
2022 $785M $46.6M $293M $66.7M
2023 $926M $18.9M $284M $32.2M
2024 $1.11B $70.7M $393M $99.8M
2025 $1.25B $99.3M $457M $135M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $316M $28.9M
Sep 2025 $323M $28.3M
Dec 2025 $315M $20.1M
Mar 2026 $315M -$14.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.1%
Institutional Ownership87.8%
Short Float1.8%
% of All Funds Holding2.41%
Number of Funds Holding198

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$72.62Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$74.60Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$75.51Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$77.58Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$74.74Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$75.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$76.78Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$70.00 support 1.69x 0 months ago
$76.00 resistance 1.18x 3 months ago
$69.00 support 1.22x 7 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (94 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.06% 0.06% 53.19% 8.62% -8.21%
1 Day 0.32% 0.20% 52.13% 11.96% -7.83%
1 Week 0.63% 0.23% 52.13% 12.58% -11.36%
2 Weeks 0.26% 0.29% 51.06% 12.14% -24.45%
1 Month 1.17% 1.06% 54.84% 19.89% -15.29%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.6%41.7%24
Feb-0.6%45.8%24
Mar-0.5%45.8%24
Apr0.9%45.8%24
May0.4%50.0%24
Jun0.2%50.0%24
Jul2.2%65.2%23
Aug0.8%56.5%23
Sep-0.9%52.2%23
Oct3.1%78.3%23
Nov3.2%73.9%23
Dec1.7%62.5%24

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 50.4% 1114
Tuesday 0.10% 50.9% 1221
Wednesday -0.01% 48.6% 1219
Thursday 0.06% 53.6% 1195
Friday 0.06% 50.3% 1189

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 87.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value+$3,945.425
Net Shares Change-43,754
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SRB CORP -$3.6M 5 5 sell
Langwell Dennis J. +$287,760 2 2 buy
Hiltpold Glenn VP OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES +$3,945.425 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-09-18 Hiltpold Glenn VP OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES +$3,945.425 Transaction at $71.73, now +5.3%
2025-09-05 Langwell Dennis J. +$144,780 Transaction at $72.39, now +4.4%
2025-08-11 Langwell Dennis J. +$142,980 Transaction at $71.49, now +5.7%
2026-03-23 SRB CORP -$1.0M Transaction at $71.12, now +6.2%
2026-02-27 SRB CORP -$1.1M Transaction at $78.35, now -3.6%
2026-03-19 SRB CORP -$87,599.3 Transaction at $73.06, now +3.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SAFT on Trend Edge →