RLI — RLI Corp

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates RLI Bearish with a Setup Score of 46, net conviction 30, actionability 72. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score46
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction30
Actionability72 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About RLI Corp

RLI Corp., an insurance holding company, provides property, casualty, and surety insurance products. Its Casualty segment provides commercial excess, personal umbrella, general liability, transportation, and management liability coverages; professional liability and workers' compensation for office-based professional coverages; commercial automobile liability and physical damage insurance to local, intermediate and long haul truckers, public tran… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$60.65
Market Cap$5.53B
Float81.6M
Shares Outstanding91.9M
P/E (Forward)22.08
P/E (TTM)14.15
Price/Sales (TTM)2.91
vs. Analyst Target-2.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin20.81%
Operating Margin (TTM)15.94%
Revenue (TTM)$1.90B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-12.20%
Dividend Rate0.7%
Analyst Target Price$59.00 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $988M $157M $308M $205M
2021 $1.18B $279M $460M $359M
2022 $1.70B $583M $732M $737M
2023 $1.51B $305M $391M $393M
2024 $1.77B $346M $455M $442M
2025 $1.88B $403M $561M $530M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $500M $124M
Sep 2025 $509M $125M
Dec 2025 $466M $91.2M
Mar 2026 $424M $54.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.6%
Institutional Ownership90.5%
Short Float8.0%
% of All Funds Holding4.83%
Number of Funds Holding397

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$54.30Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$58.89Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$65.78Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$68.08Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$58.39Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$65.91Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$68.62Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$50.00 support 1.35x 0 months ago
$61.00 resistance 1.04x 3 months ago
$63.00 resistance 1.43x 5 months ago
$64.00 resistance 1.38x 8 months ago
$72.00 resistance 1.82x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.09% 0.01% 50.00% 7.01% -9.26%
1 Day 0.22% 0.23% 52.46% 14.33% -12.00%
1 Week 0.11% 0.14% 51.64% 12.29% -18.60%
2 Weeks 0.49% -0.03% 50.00% 17.45% -19.28%
1 Month 1.75% 1.61% 59.50% 18.30% -13.90%

Next earnings: July 22, 2026 (9 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.1%50.0%46
Feb3.0%60.9%46
Mar1.1%58.7%46
Apr0.3%40.4%47
May1.1%53.2%47
Jun1.3%53.2%47
Jul1.3%54.3%46
Aug-0.1%54.3%46
Sep0.1%47.8%46
Oct1.8%63.0%46
Nov2.8%60.9%46
Dec2.7%67.4%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 42.8% 2206
Tuesday 0.12% 45.9% 2394
Wednesday 0.01% 42.0% 2392
Thursday 0.06% 43.1% 2346
Friday 0.10% 43.0% 2330

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 90.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value+$1.3M
Net Shares Change29,500
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings7
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kliethermes Craig W CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER +$807,250 3 3 buy
Klobnak Jennifer L CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER +$535,710 4 4 buy
KELLOGG CLARK C +$152,700 1 1 buy
Duclos David B. +$129,975 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-19 – 2026-06-01 5 4 +$754,955 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-03 Kliethermes Craig W CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER +$260,000 Transaction at $52.00, now +16.6%
2026-05-21 Kliethermes Craig W CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER +$260,000 Transaction at $52.00, now +16.6%
2026-05-28 Klobnak Jennifer L CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER +$105,440 Transaction at $52.72, now +15.0%
2026-05-19 Klobnak Jennifer L CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER +$106,840 Transaction at $53.42, now +13.5%
2026-06-01 KELLOGG CLARK C +$152,700 Transaction at $50.90, now +19.2%
2026-05-29 Duclos David B. +$129,975 Transaction at $51.99, now +16.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for RLI Corp (RLI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RLI on Trend Edge →