REPX — Riley Exploration Permian Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates REPX Bullish with a Setup Score of 42, net conviction 43, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score42
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction43
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Riley Exploration Permian Inc

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. Its acreage is primarily located on contiguous blocks in Yoakum County, Texas; and oil and natural gas properties in the Yeso trend of the Permian Basin in Eddy County, New Mexico. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$37.36
Market Cap$824M
Float16.4M
Shares Outstanding21.7M
P/E (Forward)5.64
P/E (TTM)6.67
Price/Sales (TTM)1.70
vs. Analyst Target+25.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin24.53%
Operating Margin (TTM)52.60%
Revenue (TTM)$484M
Earnings Growth (YoY)185.40%
Dividend Rate1.6%
Analyst Target Price$47.00 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.0M -$3.6M -$710,000 -$3.0M
2021 $151M -$65.7M $93.9M -$4.2M
2022 $322M $118M $237M $183M
2023 $375M $112M $221M $240M
2024 $410M $88.9M $234M $224M
2025 $392M $161M $182M $334M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $107M $16.3M
Dec 2025 $97.3M $85.4M
Mar 2026 $114M -$70.4M
Jun 2026 $166M $87.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership18.4%
Institutional Ownership70.5%
Short Float4.2%
% of All Funds Holding2.24%
Number of Funds Holding197

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$35.00Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$32.44Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$29.84Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$30.41Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$32.11Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$30.01Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$29.90Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$30.00 support 2.78x 4 months ago
$26.00 support 1.12x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (96 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.19% 0.00% 39.58% 12.70% -8.70%
1 Day -0.22% 0.00% 37.50% 41.27% -15.88%
1 Week 1.81% -1.46% 38.54% 117.95% -20.86%
2 Weeks 3.72% 0.00% 47.92% 107.69% -37.61%
1 Month 3.01% -2.50% 45.26% 127.16% -35.59%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan15.0%67.9%28
Feb-3.4%39.3%28
Mar3.7%53.6%28
Apr3.0%50.0%28
May-2.9%32.1%28
Jun5.3%46.4%28
Jul0.2%53.6%28
Aug-1.9%29.6%27
Sep0.5%55.6%27
Oct1.4%37.0%27
Nov-5.9%29.6%27
Dec-0.1%37.0%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.22% 40.5% 1305
Tuesday -0.05% 39.5% 1428
Wednesday 0.19% 38.8% 1428
Thursday 0.02% 40.4% 1401
Friday 0.36% 41.9% 1393

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 70.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 18.4%

Founder-led management: Bobby D. Riley (Chairman, CEO & President)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings28
Net Value-$3.7M
Net Shares Change-2,566,504
% of Float-15.6%
C-Suite Filings11
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC -$55.0M 6 6 sell
Riley Bobby CEO -$1.6M 2 2 sell
Riley Philip A CFO & EVP STRATEGY -$150,420.4 1 1 sell
Arriaga Brent Alexander -$97,350 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-04 – 2026-02-13 5 3 -$16.2M 2 C-suite
2026-05-12 – 2026-05-19 3 3 -$648,232 2 C-suite
2026-08-12 – 2026-08-19 3 3 -$721,712.8 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-19 Riley Philip A CFO & EVP STRATEGY -$150,420.4 Transaction at $37.61, now -0.7%
2026-06-12 Riley Bobby CEO -$1.1M Transaction at $36.22, now +3.1%
2026-03-06 Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC -$28.5M Transaction at $32.33, now +15.5%
2026-05-19 Arriaga Brent Alexander -$97,350 Transaction at $38.94, now -4.1%
2026-03-04 Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC -$2.4M Transaction at $29.65, now +26.0%
2025-12-22 Riley Bobby CEO -$518,220 Transaction at $25.91, now +44.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Riley Exploration Permian Inc (REPX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for REPX on Trend Edge →