NCMI — National CineMedia Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NCMI Bearish with a Setup Score of 10, net conviction 48, actionability 2. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score10
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction48
Actionability2 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About National CineMedia Inc

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other fo… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$2.72
Market Cap$240M
Float65.6M
Shares Outstanding94.1M
P/E (Forward)74.63
Price/Sales (TTM)0.96
vs. Analyst Target+76.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-3.13%
Operating Margin (TTM)-21.92%
Revenue (TTM)$249M
Earnings Growth (YoY)20.80%
Dividend Rate0.1%
Analyst Target Price$4.81 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $90.4M -$65.4M $46.9M $129M
2021 $115M -$48.7M $37.7M -$18.0M
2022 $249M -$28.7M $131M $45.0M
2023 $165M $705M $85.1M $750M
2024 $241M -$22.3M $72.8M $22.0M
2025 $243M -$10.6M $73.8M $27.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $63.4M $1.6M
Dec 2025 $93.2M $29.3M
Mar 2026 $34.0M -$28.6M
Jun 2026 $58.4M -$9.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.4%
Institutional Ownership93.4%
Short Float11.0%
% of All Funds Holding1.22%
Number of Funds Holding107

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$3.53Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$3.54Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.27Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.43Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$3.55Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.44Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.69Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$4.00 resistance 2.67x 0 months ago
$5.40 resistance 1.01x 13 months ago
$6.70 resistance 1.49x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (79 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.85% -0.72% 36.71% 22.75% -31.13%
1 Day -2.07% -2.37% 39.24% 27.91% -41.42%
1 Week 0.07% -0.33% 45.57% 66.50% -33.02%
2 Weeks 0.29% -2.28% 37.18% 258.33% -43.18%
1 Month 0.17% -0.73% 46.15% 141.67% -60.38%

Next earnings: October 30, 2026 (64 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%36.8%19
Feb2.5%57.9%19
Mar-6.5%35.0%20
Apr4.8%45.0%20
May-2.6%50.0%20
Jun-0.1%65.0%20
Jul2.8%45.0%20
Aug-0.5%36.8%19
Sep2.7%57.9%19
Oct-6.7%31.6%19
Nov0.9%47.4%19
Dec-0.3%52.6%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.05% 47.7% 924
Tuesday -0.01% 45.9% 1010
Wednesday 0.06% 47.7% 1008
Thursday -0.15% 43.7% 989
Friday -0.00% 47.9% 984

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 93.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings25
Net Value-$2.4M
Net Shares Change192,085
% of Float0.3%
C-Suite Filings25
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lesinski Thomas F. Chief Executive Officer -$783,579.157 4 4 sell
Ng Ronnie Y. Chief Financial Officer -$264,842.867 3 3 sell
Woods Maria VG Chief Legal Officer -$101,154.457 3 3 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-18 – 2025-10-02 6 4 -$467,460.438 6 C-suite
2025-12-30 – 2025-12-30 3 3 -$264,057.09 3 C-suite
2026-04-02 – 2026-04-02 3 3 -$331,709.6 3 C-suite
2026-05-05 – 2026-05-05 3 3 -$133,082.736 3 C-suite
2026-06-23 – 2026-07-02 5 3 -$765,403.71 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-04 Lesinski Thomas F. Chief Executive Officer -$211,766.134 Transaction at $4.18, now -35.0%
2026-07-02 Ng Ronnie Y. Chief Financial Officer -$121,954.147 Transaction at $3.77, now -27.9%
2026-07-02 Woods Maria VG Chief Legal Officer -$45,487.599 Transaction at $3.77, now -27.9%
2026-07-02 Lesinski Thomas F. Chief Executive Officer -$264,701.763 Transaction at $3.77, now -27.9%
2026-04-02 Woods Maria VG EVP - General Counsel -$36,680.64 Transaction at $3.04, now -10.5%
2026-04-02 Ng Ronnie Y. Chief Financial Officer -$98,344 Transaction at $3.04, now -10.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NCMI on Trend Edge →