TTD — Trade Desk Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TTD Bearish with a Setup Score of 49, net conviction 35, actionability 70. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score49
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction35
Actionability70 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Trade Desk Inc

The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$13.72
Market Cap$6.31B
Float417.8M
Shares Outstanding426.8M
P/E (Forward)16.92
P/E (TTM)15.43
Price/Sales (TTM)2.11
vs. Analyst Target-2.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin13.61%
Operating Margin (TTM)14.21%
Revenue (TTM)$2.99B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-23.60%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$13.39 (41 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $836M $242M $657M $173M
2021 $1.20B $138M $975M $165M
2022 $1.58B $53.4M $1.30B $182M
2023 $1.95B $179M $1.58B $348M
2024 $2.44B $393M $1.97B $595M
2025 $2.90B $443M $2.28B $775M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $739M $116M
Dec 2025 $847M $187M
Mar 2026 $689M $40.0M
Jun 2026 $715M $64.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.3%
Institutional Ownership89.6%
Short Float18.0%
% of All Funds Holding7.67%
Number of Funds Holding675

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$16.08Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$24.28Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$41.57Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$66.22Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$24.93Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$46.74Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$68.25Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$18.60 resistance 1.59x 0 months ago
$21.90 resistance 1.31x 2 months ago
$30.10 resistance 1.23x 6 months ago
$84.00 resistance 1.96x 12 months ago
$115.00 resistance 2.58x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (40 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.84% 1.07% 52.50% 28.48% -35.88%
1 Day 5.37% 0.96% 55.00% 43.39% -38.61%
1 Week 5.56% 3.39% 57.50% 62.39% -40.99%
2 Weeks 5.04% 3.71% 55.00% 56.57% -40.53%
1 Month 6.17% 10.25% 64.10% 70.79% -53.00%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (54 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%60.0%10
Feb10.4%80.0%10
Mar-11.0%30.0%10
Apr6.6%70.0%10
May13.2%60.0%10
Jun5.3%60.0%10
Jul6.7%70.0%10
Aug8.0%44.4%9
Sep-2.0%44.4%9
Oct-1.0%60.0%10
Nov10.6%60.0%10
Dec-7.0%20.0%10

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.04% 53.3% 467
Tuesday 0.23% 53.3% 514
Wednesday 0.24% 52.1% 511
Thursday -0.18% 48.3% 503
Friday 0.41% 53.6% 502

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 89.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.3%

Founder-led management: Jeff Green (Co-Founder, CEO, President & Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value+$148M
Net Shares Change5,922,174
% of Float1.4%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Green Jeffrey Terry President and CEO +$148M 1 1 buy
FALBERG KATHRYN E -$4.7M 2 3 sell
Jacobson Samantha Chief Strategy Officer -$1.3M 2 2 sell
Cunningham Andrea Lee -$67,624.6 1 1 sell
Rajaram Gokul +N/A 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-09 FALBERG KATHRYN E -$4.7M Transaction at $30.46, now -55.0%
2026-03-04 Green Jeffrey Terry President and CEO +$148M Transaction at $24.68, now -44.4%
2026-05-19 Jacobson Samantha Chief Strategy Officer -$141,133.95 Transaction at $21.15, now -35.1%
2026-06-01 Jacobson Samantha -$1.1M Transaction at $21.14, now -35.1%
2026-04-07 Rajaram Gokul +N/A N/A
2026-03-25 FALBERG KATHRYN E -$42,602.416 Transaction at $21.89, now -37.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Trade Desk Inc (TTD) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TTD on Trend Edge →