TTD — Trade Desk Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TTD Bearish with a Setup Score of 22, net conviction 23, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score22
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction23
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Trade Desk Inc

The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$13.39
Market Cap$8.31B
Float418.0M
Shares Outstanding427.0M
P/E (Forward)16.26
P/E (TTM)21.04
Price/Sales (TTM)2.80
vs. Analyst Target+79.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin14.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)9.68%
Revenue (TTM)$2.97B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-20.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$24.05 (41 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $836M $242M $657M $173M
2021 $1.20B $138M $975M $165M
2022 $1.58B $53.4M $1.30B $182M
2023 $1.95B $179M $1.58B $348M
2024 $2.44B $393M $1.97B $595M
2025 $2.90B $443M $2.28B $775M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $694M $90.1M
Sep 2025 $739M $116M
Dec 2025 $847M $187M
Mar 2026 $689M $40.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.3%
Institutional Ownership87.3%
Short Float17.6%

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$17.59Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$26.28Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$44.43Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$66.80Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$24.90Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$46.72Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$68.24Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$21.90 resistance 1.31x 1 months ago
$30.10 resistance 1.23x 5 months ago
$84.00 resistance 1.96x 11 months ago
$115.00 resistance 2.58x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (40 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.84% 1.07% 52.50% 28.48% -35.88%
1 Day 5.37% 0.96% 55.00% 43.39% -38.61%
1 Week 6.22% 3.92% 58.97% 62.39% -40.99%
2 Weeks 5.82% 5.43% 56.41% 56.57% -40.53%
1 Month 6.17% 10.25% 64.10% 70.79% -53.00%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (74 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%60.0%10
Feb10.4%80.0%10
Mar-11.0%30.0%10
Apr6.6%70.0%10
May13.2%60.0%10
Jun5.3%60.0%10
Jul6.7%70.0%10
Aug8.0%44.4%9
Sep-2.0%44.4%9
Oct-1.0%60.0%10
Nov10.6%60.0%10
Dec-7.0%20.0%10

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.06% 53.4% 464
Tuesday 0.23% 53.2% 511
Wednesday 0.25% 52.2% 508
Thursday -0.20% 48.2% 500
Friday 0.42% 53.7% 499

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 87.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.3%

Founder-led management: Jeff Green (Co-Founder, CEO, President & Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value+$145M
Net Shares Change6,001,345
% of Float1.4%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Green Jeffrey Terry President and CEO +$148M 1 1 buy
FALBERG KATHRYN E -$4.7M 2 3 sell
GRANT JAY R Chief Legal Officer -$2.7M 1 N/A
Jacobson Samantha Chief Strategy Officer -$1.3M 2 2 sell
Cunningham Andrea Lee -$67,624.6 1 1 sell
Kayyal Alex Chief Financial Officer -$18,757 1 1 sell
Rajaram Gokul +N/A 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-19 Jacobson Samantha Chief Strategy Officer -$141,133.95 Transaction at $21.15, now -36.7%
2026-03-04 Green Jeffrey Terry President and CEO +$148M Transaction at $24.68, now -45.8%
2026-06-01 Jacobson Samantha -$1.1M Transaction at $21.14, now -36.7%
2026-03-09 FALBERG KATHRYN E -$4.7M Transaction at $30.46, now -56.0%
2025-08-22 Kayyal Alex Chief Financial Officer -$18,757 Transaction at $5.94, now +125.4%
2026-04-07 Rajaram Gokul +N/A N/A

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Trade Desk Inc (TTD) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TTD on Trend Edge →