MTDR — Matador Resources Company

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MTDR Bearish with a Setup Score of 37, net conviction 18, actionability 75. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score37
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction18
Actionability75 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Matador Resources Company

Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream. The company primarily holds interests in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$51.34
Market Cap$6.38B
Float116.0M
Shares Outstanding124.2M
P/E (Forward)7.28
P/E (TTM)13.59
Price/Sales (TTM)1.78
vs. Analyst Target+38.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin13.45%
Operating Margin (TTM)4.97%
Revenue (TTM)$3.59B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-9.60%
Dividend Rate1.5%
Analyst Target Price$71.26 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $855M -$593M $221M -$161M
2021 $1.66B $585M $892M $1.14B
2022 $3.06B $1.21B $1.88B $2.23B
2023 $2.82B $846M $1.33B $1.93B
2024 $3.48B $885M $1.54B $2.42B
2025 $3.66B $759M $1.60B $2.45B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $926M $150M
Sep 2025 $915M $176M
Dec 2025 $848M $193M
Mar 2026 $942M -$35.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.1%
Institutional Ownership95.9%
Short Float11.0%
% of All Funds Holding5.62%
Number of Funds Holding462

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$53.44Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$49.72Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$49.50Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$54.28Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$50.23Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$49.77Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$53.64Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$55.00 resistance 1.03x 0 months ago
$44.00 support 1.03x 4 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (58 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.12% 0.23% 53.45% 4.84% -8.11%
1 Day -0.12% -0.63% 48.28% 15.90% -10.87%
1 Week 2.22% 2.82% 58.62% 20.35% -15.52%
2 Weeks 1.89% 2.16% 55.17% 29.00% -81.23%
1 Month 2.23% -1.08% 47.37% 47.99% -79.37%

Next earnings: July 28, 2026 (15 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.1%71.4%14
Feb1.0%50.0%14
Mar-0.6%66.7%15
Apr15.9%73.3%15
May-0.6%53.3%15
Jun4.2%60.0%15
Jul2.4%64.3%14
Aug2.8%57.1%14
Sep-1.4%42.9%14
Oct0.2%42.9%14
Nov4.0%57.1%14
Dec-2.7%35.7%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 49.5% 681
Tuesday 0.28% 53.7% 745
Wednesday 0.09% 50.8% 742
Thursday 0.09% 50.3% 729
Friday 0.14% 51.9% 727

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.1%

Founder-led management: Joseph Wm. Foran (Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings40
Net Value+$2.2M
Net Shares Change64,033
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings30
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$488,824.4 4 4 buy
Calvert Christopher P EVP and CFO +$79,860 1 1 buy
Stetson Glenn W EVP and COO +$53,675 2 2 buy
Baty Robert Gaines +$25,720 1 1 buy
Ehrman Monika U +$20,011.36 1 1 buy
Colodney Benjamin T SVP & Chief Accounting Officer -$15,630.98 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-09 – 2025-09-16 8 8 +$246,592.7 7 C-suite
2025-11-03 – 2025-11-10 18 13 +$1.5M 12 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-11 9 5 +$626,739.78 8 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-17 Baty Robert Gaines +$25,720 Transaction at $51.44, now -0.2%
2026-06-11 Stetson Glenn W EVP and COO +$26,705 Transaction at $53.41, now -3.9%
2026-06-11 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$106,140 Transaction at $53.07, now -3.3%
2026-06-08 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$112,500 Transaction at $56.25, now -8.7%
2026-06-02 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$25,401.4 Transaction at $52.70, now -2.6%
2026-06-02 Colodney Benjamin T SVP & Chief Accounting Officer -$15,630.98 Transaction at $59.12, now -13.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Matador Resources Company (MTDR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MTDR on Trend Edge →