MTDR — Matador Resources Company

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MTDR Bearish with a Setup Score of 23, net conviction 19, actionability 29. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score23
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction19
Actionability29 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Matador Resources Company

Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream. The company primarily holds interests in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$55.25
Market Cap$7.18B
Float115.6M
Shares Outstanding123.8M
P/E (Forward)8.77
P/E (TTM)9.81
Price/Sales (TTM)1.88
vs. Analyst Target+23.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin18.85%
Operating Margin (TTM)49.20%
Revenue (TTM)$3.84B
Earnings Growth (YoY)160.60%
Dividend Rate1.5%
Analyst Target Price$68.37 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $855M -$593M $221M -$161M
2021 $1.66B $585M $892M $1.14B
2022 $3.06B $1.21B $1.88B $2.23B
2023 $2.82B $846M $1.33B $1.93B
2024 $3.48B $885M $1.54B $2.42B
2025 $3.66B $759M $1.60B $2.45B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $915M $176M
Dec 2025 $848M $193M
Mar 2026 $942M -$35.9M
Jun 2026 $1.19B $391M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.2%
Institutional Ownership98.8%
Short Float12.8%
% of All Funds Holding5.56%
Number of Funds Holding489

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$52.23Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$51.85Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$48.92Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$54.08Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$51.66Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$49.65Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$53.76Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$49.00 support 1.07x 0 months ago
$44.00 support 1.03x 5 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (59 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.02% 0.27% 54.24% 5.91% -8.11%
1 Day -0.06% -0.54% 49.15% 15.90% -10.87%
1 Week 2.35% 2.87% 59.32% 20.35% -15.52%
2 Weeks 2.27% 2.45% 55.93% 29.00% -81.23%
1 Month 2.07% -1.26% 46.55% 47.99% -79.37%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan5.1%71.4%14
Feb1.0%50.0%14
Mar-0.6%66.7%15
Apr15.9%73.3%15
May-0.6%53.3%15
Jun4.2%60.0%15
Jul2.2%66.7%15
Aug2.8%57.1%14
Sep-1.4%42.9%14
Oct0.2%42.9%14
Nov4.0%57.1%14
Dec-2.7%35.7%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 49.4% 688
Tuesday 0.28% 53.7% 752
Wednesday 0.10% 51.0% 749
Thursday 0.08% 50.3% 736
Friday 0.15% 51.9% 734

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 98.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.2%

Founder-led management: Joseph Wm. Foran (Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings42
Net Value+$2.9M
Net Shares Change77,122
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings32
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$1.2M 6 6 buy
Calvert Christopher P EVP and CFO +$79,860 1 1 buy
Elsener William Thomas EVP, Reservoir Engineering +$43,299 1 1 buy
Stetson Glenn W EVP and COO +$26,705 1 1 buy
Colodney Benjamin T SVP & Chief Accounting Officer -$15,630.98 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-09 – 2025-09-16 8 8 +$246,592.7 7 C-suite
2025-11-03 – 2025-11-10 18 13 +$1.5M 12 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-11 9 5 +$626,739.78 8 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-19 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$21,456 Transaction at $53.64, now +3.0%
2026-08-14 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$778,800 Transaction at $51.92, now +6.4%
2026-08-12 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$196,396.33 Transaction at $51.16, now +8.0%
2026-08-12 Elsener William Thomas EVP, Reservoir Engineering +$43,299 Transaction at $50.94, now +8.5%
2026-06-11 Stetson Glenn W EVP and COO +$26,705 Transaction at $53.41, now +3.4%
2026-06-11 Foran Joseph Wm Chairman and CEO +$106,140 Transaction at $53.07, now +4.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Matador Resources Company (MTDR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MTDR on Trend Edge →