MORN — Morningstar Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MORN Bearish with a Setup Score of 62, net conviction 33, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score62
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction33
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Morningstar Inc

Morningstar, Inc. provides independent investment insights for investors in the United States, Asia, Australia, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement. The company offers managed investments, including mutual funds, exchanged traded funds, separate accounts, collective investme… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$217.50
Market Cap$8.16B
Float18.9M
Shares Outstanding37.5M
P/E (Forward)16.29
P/E (TTM)20.69
Price/Sales (TTM)3.18
vs. Analyst Target+8.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin16.43%
Operating Margin (TTM)24.22%
Revenue (TTM)$2.57B
Earnings Growth (YoY)35.40%
Dividend Rate2.0%
Analyst Target Price$236.67 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.39B $224M $833M $434M
2021 $1.70B $193M $1.00B $410M
2022 $1.87B $70.5M $1.09B $326M
2023 $2.04B $141M $1.20B $418M
2024 $2.28B $370M $1.38B $732M
2025 $2.45B $374M $1.49B $729M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $617M $91.6M
Dec 2025 $641M $115M
Mar 2026 $645M $107M
Jun 2026 $663M $108M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership49.7%
Institutional Ownership66.5%
Short Float7.7%
% of All Funds Holding4.73%
Number of Funds Holding416

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$186.50Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$186.79Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$229.18Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$252.99Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$190.33Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$236.79Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$259.48Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$232.00 resistance 1.52x 9 months ago
$261.00 resistance 1.97x 10 months ago
$312.00 resistance 1.82x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (86 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.24% 0.03% 51.16% 2.86% -7.37%
1 Day -0.17% -0.32% 41.86% 5.23% -10.07%
1 Week -0.98% -1.04% 41.86% 11.06% -15.09%
2 Weeks -0.93% -1.17% 40.70% 18.38% -20.83%
1 Month 0.87% -0.31% 47.06% 31.50% -27.41%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.3%47.6%21
Feb-0.1%47.6%21
Mar0.5%52.4%21
Apr0.8%33.3%21
May2.7%66.7%21
Jun1.3%59.1%22
Jul3.3%68.2%22
Aug1.3%57.1%21
Sep-1.7%47.6%21
Oct3.2%76.2%21
Nov2.1%66.7%21
Dec0.9%52.4%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 48.1% 1003
Tuesday 0.04% 49.6% 1100
Wednesday 0.10% 50.7% 1101
Thursday 0.12% 50.4% 1080
Friday 0.10% 52.5% 1075

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 66.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 49.7%

Founder-led management: Joe Mansueto (Executive Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings36
Net Value-$78.7M
Net Shares Change-415,648
% of Float-2.2%
C-Suite Filings33
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Mansueto Joseph D Executive Chairman -$14.3M 5 N/A
Lyons William M -$324,300 2 2 sell
Holt Michael Chief Financial Officer +$141,756.5 2 1 buy, 1 sell
TSAY CAROLINE J -$131,090.4 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-19 – 2026-05-27 4 3 -$5.5M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-04 Holt Michael Chief Financial Officer +$186,590 Transaction at $186.59, now +16.6%
2026-08-03 Lyons William M -$199,000 Transaction at $199.00, now +9.3%
2026-05-27 Lyons William M -$125,300 Transaction at $179.00, now +21.5%
2026-05-19 Holt Michael Chief Financial Officer -$44,833.5 Transaction at $166.05, now +31.0%
2025-12-30 TSAY CAROLINE J -$131,090.4 Transaction at $218.48, now -0.5%
2026-08-24 Mansueto Joseph D Executive Chairman -$1.2M Transaction at $218.84, now -0.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Morningstar Inc (MORN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MORN on Trend Edge →