MCO — Moodys Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MCO Bearish with a Setup Score of 44, net conviction 22, actionability 90. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score44
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction22
Actionability90 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Moodys Corporation

Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Service (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$487.28
Market Cap$85.07B
Float160.0M
Shares Outstanding174.7M
P/E (Forward)29.41
P/E (TTM)34.84
Price/Sales (TTM)10.81
vs. Analyst Target+10.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin31.69%
Operating Margin (TTM)45.74%
Revenue (TTM)$7.87B
Earnings Growth (YoY)7.80%
Dividend Rate4.1%
Analyst Target Price$538.65 (23 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $5.37B $1.78B $3.68B $2.68B
2021 $6.22B $2.21B $4.32B $3.25B
2022 $5.47B $1.37B $3.52B $2.31B
2023 $5.92B $1.61B $3.85B $2.52B
2024 $7.09B $2.06B $4.71B $3.33B
2025 $7.72B $2.46B $5.26B $3.94B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.90B $578M
Sep 2025 $2.01B $646M
Dec 2025 $1.89B $610M
Mar 2026 $2.08B $661M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership14.2%
Institutional Ownership81.0%
Short Float2.1%
% of All Funds Holding15.84%
Number of Funds Holding1,302

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$456.03Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$471.03Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$476.43Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$409.88Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$476.66Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$482.25Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$435.44Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$433.00 support 1.01x 2 months ago
$516.00 resistance 2.13x 4 months ago
$425.00 support 1.11x 23 months ago
$370.00 support 1.10x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.04% 0.00% 47.79% 5.61% -6.92%
1 Day 0.02% -0.23% 43.36% 13.87% -6.03%
1 Week 0.25% -0.07% 48.67% 11.99% -10.65%
2 Weeks -0.30% -0.13% 49.56% 15.69% -22.85%
1 Month 0.33% 1.79% 60.18% 18.75% -26.09%

Next earnings: July 22, 2026 (10 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.5%62.5%32
Feb0.5%59.4%32
Mar3.4%75.0%32
Apr3.1%65.6%32
May0.9%71.9%32
Jun0.2%50.0%32
Jul1.8%67.7%31
Aug-0.2%58.1%31
Sep1.0%54.8%31
Oct0.9%61.3%31
Nov1.7%56.3%32
Dec1.5%53.1%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 48.4% 1498
Tuesday 0.19% 50.8% 1637
Wednesday 0.12% 52.8% 1636
Thursday 0.04% 49.4% 1603
Friday 0.05% 49.4% 1596

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 81.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 14.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings33
Net Value-$24.9M
Net Shares Change-4,147
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings33
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Fauber Robert President and CEO -$13.2M 1 N/A
West Michael L President, Moody's Investors -$3.8M 3 3 sell
Tulenko Stephen T President, Moody's Analytics -$1.2M 2 2 sell
Steele Richard G SVP - General Counsel -$335,401.983 1 1 sell
Heuland Noemie Clemence SVP & Chief Financial Officer -$196,017.927 2 2 sell
Phillips Jason D Chief Acctg Off & Controller -$157,437.261 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-16 – 2025-07-30 4 4 -$1.9M 4 C-suite
2026-02-27 – 2026-03-05 6 5 -$16.5M 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-05 West Michael L President, Moody's Investors -$2.0M Transaction at $473.72, now +2.9%
2026-03-05 Phillips Jason D Chief Acctg Off & Controller -$157,437.261 Transaction at $472.61, now +3.1%
2026-03-05 Heuland Noemie Clemence SVP & Chief Financial Officer -$46,587 Transaction at $465.87, now +4.6%
2026-02-27 West Michael L President, Moody's Investors -$529,195.614 Transaction at $394.57, now +23.5%
2025-07-31 Tulenko Stephen T President, Moody's Analytics -$1.1M Transaction at $511.18, now -4.7%
2025-07-30 West Michael L President, Moody's Investors -$1.3M Transaction at $398.98, now +22.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Moodys Corporation (MCO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MCO on Trend Edge →