Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge rates MNR Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 15, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →
| Total Setup Score | 0 |
|---|---|
| Directional Bias | Bullish |
| Net Conviction | 15 |
| Actionability | 0 (no mans land) |
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems, processing plants. and water infrastructure. It also operates proved developed producing (PDP) wells. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $12.80 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.15B |
| Float | 63.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 166.8M |
| P/E (TTM) | 17.43 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 1.86 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +44.0% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | 7.96% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | -2.65% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.16B |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | 22.70% |
| Dividend Rate | 1.8% |
| Analyst Target Price | $18.43 (4 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $168M | -$22.1M | $148M | $65.5M |
| 2021 | $392M | $138M | $216M | $181M |
| 2022 | $937M | $517M | $548M | $610M |
| 2023 | $762M | $347M | $387M | $495M |
| 2024 | $970M | $185M | $332M | $561M |
| 2025 | $1.18B | $286M | $392M | $508M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $289M | $89.7M |
| Sep 2025 | $273M | -$35.7M |
| Dec 2025 | $388M | $216M |
| Mar 2026 | $383M | -$35.0M |
| Insider Ownership | 23.8% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 60.6% |
| Short Float | 0.8% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 0.69% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 57 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $13.28 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $12.62 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $13.67 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $0.00 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $12.61 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $13.76 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $0.00 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15.60 | resistance | 1.01x | 14 months ago |
| $17.80 | resistance | 2.32x | 16 months ago |
| $19.20 | resistance | 2.30x | 21 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 0.38% | 0.00% | 45.45% | 8.47% | -8.09% |
| 1 Day | -0.10% | 0.43% | 54.55% | 4.32% | -7.92% |
| 1 Week | 1.33% | 1.67% | 63.64% | 9.64% | -8.45% |
| 2 Weeks | -2.06% | -3.95% | 36.36% | 8.49% | -14.71% |
| 1 Month | -4.56% | -5.25% | 30.00% | 6.63% | -17.81% |
Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (24 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.03% | 48.4% | 128 |
| Tuesday | -0.23% | 47.1% | 140 |
| Wednesday | 0.07% | 50.4% | 137 |
| Thursday | -0.07% | 54.1% | 133 |
| Friday | 0.01% | 52.6% | 135 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 60.6%
Total insider ownership: 23.8%
Founder-led management: Tom L. Ward (Chief Executive Officer and Director)
| Total Filings | 10 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | +$4.0M |
| Net Shares Change | -5,188,415 |
| % of Float | -8.2% |
| C-Suite Filings | 4 |
| Clusters Detected | 0 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. | -$71.2M | 1 | 1 sell | |
| WARD TOM L. | The Reporting Person is Chief Executive Officer of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC, the general partner of the Issuer (the "General Partner"). The Issuer is managed by the directors and executive officers of the General Partner. | +$4.0M | 4 | 4 buy |
| McMullen William Wallace | +$600,023.542 | 4 | 4 buy | |
| Burn Christopher | +$27,920 | 1 | 1 buy |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | WARD TOM L. | The Reporting Person is Chief Executive Officer of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC, the general partner of the Issuer (the "General Partner"). The Issuer is managed by the directors and executive officers of the General Partner. | +$2.0M | Transaction at $13.05, now -1.9% |
| 2026-03-23 | Burn Christopher | +$27,920 | Transaction at $13.96, now -8.3% | |
| 2026-03-23 | McMullen William Wallace | +$128,800.592 | Transaction at $13.87, now -7.7% | |
| 2025-11-18 | WARD TOM L. | The Reporting Person is Chief Executive Officer of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC, the general partner of the Issuer (the "General Partner"). The Issuer is managed by the directors and executive officers of the General Partner. | +$1.0M | Transaction at $11.99, now +6.7% |
| 2025-12-01 | WARD TOM L. | The Reporting Person is Chief Executive Officer of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC, the general partner of the Issuer (the "General Partner"). The Issuer is managed by the directors and executive officers of the General Partner. | +$465,200 | Transaction at $11.63, now +10.1% |
| 2025-11-25 | WARD TOM L. | The Reporting Person is Chief Executive Officer of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC, the general partner of the Issuer (the "General Partner"). The Issuer is managed by the directors and executive officers of the General Partner. | +$499,907 | Transaction at $11.45, now +11.8% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.
Get the full AI Consult analysis for MNR on Trend Edge →