MGY — Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MGY Bullish with a Setup Score of 40, net conviction 39, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score40
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction39
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$27.22
Market Cap$6.84B
Float235.2M
Shares Outstanding237.0M
P/E (Forward)10.01
P/E (TTM)12.01
Price/Sales (TTM)4.62
vs. Analyst Target+20.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin28.77%
Operating Margin (TTM)50.69%
Revenue (TTM)$1.48B
Earnings Growth (YoY)136.60%
Dividend Rate0.7%
Analyst Target Price$32.88 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $541M -$1.21B $129M -$1.62B
2021 $1.08B $417M $743M $797M
2022 $1.69B $894M $1.26B $1.32B
2023 $1.23B $388M $702M $875M
2024 $1.32B $366M $681M $922M
2025 $1.31B $325M $613M $884M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $325M $75.5M
Dec 2025 $318M $68.8M
Mar 2026 $359M $99.8M
Jun 2026 $479M $182M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership89.6%
Short Float9.1%
% of All Funds Holding4.63%
Number of Funds Holding407

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$26.27Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$26.66Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$24.88Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$24.02Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.60Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$24.90Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$24.26Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$27.60 resistance 1.26x 1 months ago
$24.80 support 1.26x 5 months ago
$21.90 support 1.06x 6 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (37 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.65% 0.49% 59.46% 6.45% -5.50%
1 Day -0.02% -0.59% 40.54% 13.12% -6.24%
1 Week 2.15% 2.17% 62.16% 31.72% -23.73%
2 Weeks 3.87% 2.06% 59.46% 45.28% -23.30%
1 Month 4.38% 4.45% 61.11% 83.29% -58.47%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (60 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.6%66.7%9
Feb3.3%66.7%9
Mar-0.9%66.7%9
Apr4.5%33.3%9
May-0.6%55.6%9
Jun2.1%66.7%9
Jul3.1%60.0%10
Aug2.6%55.6%9
Sep-1.7%44.4%9
Oct-0.2%33.3%9
Nov5.8%55.6%9
Dec-1.3%33.3%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.16% 52.4% 431
Tuesday -0.04% 44.6% 473
Wednesday 0.08% 49.8% 470
Thursday 0.09% 48.1% 462
Friday 0.16% 48.3% 462

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 89.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings14
Net Value-$12.1M
Net Shares Change-91,524
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Yang Timothy D. EVP, CHIEF LEGAL & COMM & SEC -$4.4M 1 1 sell
Stavros Christopher G CEO & CHAIRMAN -$3.5M 1 1 sell
Corales Brian SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER -$960,960 1 1 sell
SMITH DAN F -$522,216 1 1 sell
DJEREJIAN EDWARD P -$521,604 1 1 sell
Szabo Shandell -$372,809.357 2 1 buy, 1 sell
Ropp Ralph Lewis +$227,088.5 2 2 buy
Khani David M. +$200,000 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-09 – 2026-02-09 3 3 -$3.3M 3 C-suite
2026-03-11 – 2026-03-11 6 6 -$10.5M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-11 Ropp Ralph Lewis +$123,125 Transaction at $24.62, now +10.5%
2026-08-11 Khani David M. +$200,000 Transaction at $25.00, now +8.9%
2026-06-03 Szabo Shandell +$2,359.754 Transaction at $27.44, now -0.8%
2026-03-11 Yang Timothy D. EVP, CHIEF LEGAL & COMM & SEC -$4.4M Transaction at $29.29, now -7.1%
2026-03-11 Stavros Christopher G CEO & CHAIRMAN -$3.5M Transaction at $29.29, now -7.1%
2026-03-11 Corales Brian SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER -$960,960 Transaction at $29.12, now -6.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MGY on Trend Edge →