HRTG — Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. It offers personal residential insurance in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia; and commercial residential property insurance in Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, and New York… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$22.16
Market Cap$710M
Float22.7M
Shares Outstanding30.3M
P/E (TTM)3.60
Price/Sales (TTM)0.84
vs. Analyst Target+42.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin23.76%
Operating Margin (TTM)23.90%
Revenue (TTM)$848M
Earnings Growth (YoY)20.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$31.50 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $593M $9.3M $91.7M $18.3M
2021 $632M -$74.7M $58.2M -$59.6M
2022 $662M -$154M $5.0M -$149M
2023 $735M $45.3M $142M $71.9M
2024 $817M $61.5M $179M $103M
2025 $847M $196M $534M $280M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $208M $48.0M
Sep 2025 $212M $50.4M
Dec 2025 $142M $66.7M
Mar 2026 $213M $36.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership19.8%
Institutional Ownership66.7%
Short Float4.9%
% of All Funds Holding2.09%
Number of Funds Holding172

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$25.43Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$26.16Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$21.61Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$12.27Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$26.16Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$21.15Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$14.09Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$29.60 resistance 1.18x 0 months ago
$18.90 support 1.46x 11 months ago
$14.60 support 1.13x 12 months ago
$8.10 support 1.43x 20 months ago
$7.00 support 1.76x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (49 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 2.29% 1.01% 67.35% 23.78% -16.42%
1 Day 1.15% -0.29% 46.94% 33.82% -22.55%
1 Week 3.87% 1.94% 55.10% 77.52% -23.33%
2 Weeks 4.30% 0.57% 53.06% 101.52% -23.89%
1 Month 6.26% 4.42% 68.75% 117.10% -30.48%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-2.2%16.7%12
Feb2.1%66.7%12
Mar8.0%50.0%12
Apr-3.6%41.7%12
May5.6%63.6%11
Jun-1.6%58.3%12
Jul-1.7%41.7%12
Aug8.0%58.3%12
Sep1.5%66.7%12
Oct-4.9%25.0%12
Nov13.7%91.7%12
Dec-2.2%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 50.1% 565
Tuesday 0.24% 46.5% 623
Wednesday 0.10% 47.7% 619
Thursday -0.04% 48.7% 606
Friday 0.13% 45.3% 605

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 66.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 19.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings31
Net Value-$8.4M
Net Shares Change-593,019
% of Float-2.6%
C-Suite Filings24
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Moura Timothy President - Narragansett Bay Insurance Company -$2.1M 2 N/A
Walvekar Vijay -$979,675.42 1 2 sell
Binnun Sharon Chief Accounting Officer -$513,870 1 1 sell
WHITING PAUL L +$484,097.9 3 3 buy
Garateix Ernie J Chief Executive Officer -$426,650.3 2 2 sell
Lusk Kirk Chief Financial Officer -$235,005.014 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-09 – 2025-09-18 4 4 -$4.0M 3 C-suite
2025-11-06 – 2025-11-20 4 3 -$2.6M 3 C-suite
2026-03-19 – 2026-03-23 3 3 -$1.2M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-20 WHITING PAUL L +$376,950.4 Transaction at $23.56, now -5.9%
2025-06-02 Walvekar Vijay -$979,675.42 Transaction at $23.27, now -4.8%
2025-08-12 WHITING PAUL L +$51,247.5 Transaction at $20.50, now +8.1%
2025-06-11 WHITING PAUL L +$55,900 Transaction at $22.36, now -0.9%
2025-12-15 Garateix Ernie J Chief Executive Officer -$228,112.8 Transaction at $28.51, now -22.3%
2025-12-11 Garateix Ernie J Chief Executive Officer -$198,537.5 Transaction at $28.36, now -21.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc (HRTG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for HRTG on Trend Edge →