GPRE — Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc

Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells e… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$15.67
Market Cap$1.06B
Float67.6M
Shares Outstanding70.0M
P/E (Forward)9.20
Price/Sales (TTM)0.55
vs. Analyst Target+5.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-0.80%
Operating Margin (TTM)10.04%
Revenue (TTM)$1.94B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-75.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$16.57 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.92B -$109M $85.4M -$42.9M
2021 $2.83B -$66.0M $179M $116M
2022 $3.66B -$127M $113M $26.6M
2023 $3.30B -$93.4M $165M $53.6M
2024 $2.46B -$82.5M $130M $52.4M
2025 $2.09B -$121M $38.5M $31.3M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $553M -$72.2M
Sep 2025 $508M $11.9M
Dec 2025 $429M $11.9M
Mar 2026 $455M $32.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership3.5%
Institutional Ownership109.4%
Short Float19.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.35%
Number of Funds Holding193

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$16.41Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$12.56Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.75Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$19.52Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$12.50Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.96Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$17.52Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$8.80 support 1.37x 6 months ago
$8.10 support 1.19x 8 months ago
$4.20 support 1.14x 10 months ago
$3.60 support 1.10x 11 months ago
$20.50 resistance 1.19x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (81 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.83% 0.87% 64.20% 9.93% -15.79%
1 Day 1.30% 1.14% 55.56% 28.50% -14.72%
1 Week 1.83% -1.37% 46.91% 54.00% -15.78%
2 Weeks 1.47% -0.84% 46.91% 65.41% -17.50%
1 Month 1.17% -1.38% 47.50% 124.06% -52.38%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%40.0%20
Feb2.1%65.0%20
Mar4.7%50.0%20
Apr2.2%61.9%21
May3.6%45.0%20
Jun-0.3%40.0%20
Jul6.4%65.0%20
Aug-0.6%45.0%20
Sep-3.7%30.0%20
Oct2.9%45.0%20
Nov3.7%55.0%20
Dec-3.2%40.0%20

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.12% 47.4% 953
Tuesday 0.14% 48.5% 1043
Wednesday -0.03% 47.4% 1042
Thursday 0.04% 47.7% 1023
Friday 0.29% 51.4% 1019

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 109.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 3.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$294,372.54
Net Shares Change-24,571
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MAPES MICHELLE Chief Legal and Admin Officer -$294,372.54 1 1 sell
Sweeney Patrick Francis +$101,298.21 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-09 Sweeney Patrick Francis +$101,298.21 Transaction at $15.87, now -1.3%
2025-09-24 MAPES MICHELLE Chief Legal and Admin Officer -$294,372.54 Transaction at $9.51, now +64.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for GPRE on Trend Edge →