DOW — Dow Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates DOW Bearish with a Setup Score of 50, net conviction 40, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score50
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction40
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Dow Inc

Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$28.42
Market Cap$20.65B
Float720.6M
Shares Outstanding722.3M
P/E (Forward)14.14
Price/Sales (TTM)0.50
vs. Analyst Target+18.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-3.13%
Operating Margin (TTM)11.59%
Revenue (TTM)$41.32B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-73.30%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$33.63 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $38.54B $1.23B $4.81B $5.54B
2021 $54.97B $6.31B $10.39B $11.68B
2022 $56.90B $4.58B $7.86B $9.50B
2023 $44.62B $589M $4.97B $4.00B
2024 $42.96B $1.12B $4.46B $5.25B
2025 $39.97B -$2.62B $2.40B $1.19B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $9.97B $62.0M
Dec 2025 $9.46B -$1.54B
Mar 2026 $9.79B -$445M
Jun 2026 $12.09B $721M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership79.2%
Short Float5.1%
% of All Funds Holding13.55%
Number of Funds Holding1,192

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$29.49Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$32.33Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$28.94Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$42.52Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$31.83Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$29.00Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$40.15Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$44.00 resistance 1.64x 21 months ago
$49.00 resistance 1.59x 22 months ago
$54.00 resistance 1.05x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (30 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.21% 0.08% 53.33% 2.14% -5.34%
1 Day -0.73% -0.36% 46.67% 4.32% -7.52%
1 Week -0.49% -0.43% 50.00% 17.01% -13.08%
2 Weeks 0.08% -0.69% 43.33% 19.62% -15.36%
1 Month 1.31% 0.29% 51.72% 19.07% -18.91%

Next earnings: October 22, 2026 (10 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.0%42.9%7
Feb1.5%42.9%7
Mar2.1%57.1%7
Apr2.5%37.5%8
May-4.5%50.0%8
Jun-5.3%37.5%8
Jul1.0%62.5%8
Aug-0.4%50.0%8
Sep-3.3%37.5%8
Oct-0.8%42.9%7
Nov3.7%57.1%7
Dec0.6%57.1%7

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.03% 48.9% 356
Tuesday 0.24% 52.8% 392
Wednesday -0.01% 47.7% 388
Thursday -0.15% 46.2% 381
Friday -0.05% 48.3% 379

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 79.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings26
Net Value-$1.5M
Net Shares Change-55,810
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings26
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Carter Karen S Chief Operating Officer -$377,696.57 1 1 sell
Fitterling James R Chair and CEO -$306,396.08 1 1 sell
Wilson Amy E General Counsel / Secretary -$172,248.52 2 2 sell
Bryant Lisa Chief Human Resources Officer -$91,177.62 2 2 sell
SAMPSON JOHN MAURICE Senior Vice President -$90,178.4 1 1 sell
Cleason Keith President, Pkg & Spec Plastics -$65,067.23 1 1 sell
Argenton Andre Chief Tech & Sustainability -$46,973.06 2 4 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-02 – 2025-12-02 7 7 -$129,887.1 7 C-suite
2026-02-11 – 2026-02-11 9 9 -$560,052.64 9 C-suite
2026-03-02 – 2026-03-02 8 8 -$413,995.4 8 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-02 Argenton Andre Chief Tech & Sustainability -$23,650.9 Transaction at $29.90, now -4.9%
2026-02-11 Argenton Andre Chief Tech & Sustainability -$23,322.16 Transaction at $32.08, now -11.4%
2025-11-05 Carter Karen S Chief Operating Officer -$377,696.57 Transaction at $23.23, now +22.3%
2026-03-02 Bryant Lisa Chief Human Resources Officer -$52,713.7 Transaction at $29.90, now -4.9%
2026-02-11 Bryant Lisa Chief Human Resources Officer -$38,463.92 Transaction at $32.08, now -11.4%
2025-11-05 Cleason Keith President, Pkg & Spec Plastics -$65,067.23 Transaction at $23.23, now +22.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Dow Inc (DOW) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for DOW on Trend Edge →