CENX — Century Aluminum Company

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. The company engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in Vlissingen, the Netherlands; and operates aluminum reduction facilities or smelters; and bauxite mining and alumina refining in Jamaica. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$65.72
Market Cap$5.98B
Float68.6M
Shares Outstanding99.0M
P/E (Forward)6.48
P/E (TTM)17.47
Price/Sales (TTM)2.35
vs. Analyst Target+21.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin13.68%
Operating Margin (TTM)13.26%
Revenue (TTM)$2.54B
Earnings Growth (YoY)1009.80%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$80.00 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.61B -$123M -$36.5M -$11.7M
2021 $2.21B -$167M $124M -$84.6M
2022 $2.78B -$14.1M $46.7M $136M
2023 $2.19B -$43.1M $91.9M $43.4M
2024 $2.22B $337M $185M $449M
2025 $2.53B $41.8M $256M $142M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $628M -$4.6M
Sep 2025 $632M $14.9M
Dec 2025 $634M $1.8M
Mar 2026 $649M $338M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership30.9%
Institutional Ownership74.3%
Short Float11.9%
% of All Funds Holding4.40%
Number of Funds Holding362

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$60.76Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$43.32Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$31.19Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$19.07Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$43.12Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$30.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$21.24Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$45.00 support 1.20x 2 months ago
$40.00 support 1.14x 3 months ago
$22.00 support 1.25x 7 months ago
$18.10 support 1.09x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (119 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.18% -0.43% 41.18% 10.88% -22.86%
1 Day -1.61% -0.66% 42.02% 21.14% -37.41%
1 Week -0.42% -1.23% 47.90% 42.60% -45.58%
2 Weeks 0.47% -0.99% 46.22% 136.01% -46.39%
1 Month -0.26% -1.18% 45.76% 82.74% -77.14%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.5%46.7%30
Feb5.3%60.0%30
Mar2.9%56.7%30
Apr5.2%64.5%31
May-3.3%43.3%30
Jun-2.1%36.7%30
Jul4.7%56.7%30
Aug-1.9%40.0%30
Sep-2.8%50.0%30
Oct-2.6%40.0%30
Nov8.1%73.3%30
Dec13.3%70.0%30

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.13% 49.5% 1427
Tuesday 0.27% 50.0% 1559
Wednesday -0.16% 47.4% 1556
Thursday 0.19% 49.0% 1525
Friday 0.21% 49.8% 1519

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 74.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 30.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value-$27.2M
Net Shares Change-10,906,873
% of Float-15.9%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG -$327M 1 1 sell
DeZee John EVP, GC and Secretary -$3.3M 1 1 sell
Gudlaugsson Gunnar EVP - Global Operations -$2.3M 1 1 sell
Hafberg Agust F SVP and Chief Commercial Officer -$1.4M 2 2 sell
Hoffman Robert F SVP, IT and CAO -$1.2M 2 2 sell
Calloway Kenneth L SVP, Human Resources -$1.0M 1 1 sell
Trpkovski Peter A EVP, CFO -$845,486.89 1 1 sell
Aboud Matt SVP, Strategy and Business Dev't -$793,098.249 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-25 – 2026-03-06 6 6 -$335M 5 C-suite
2026-03-13 – 2026-03-27 4 4 -$10.8M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-13 Calloway Kenneth L SVP, Human Resources -$1.0M Transaction at $58.00, now +13.3%
2026-03-03 Hafberg Agust F SVP and Chief Commercial Officer -$1.2M Transaction at $51.24, now +28.3%
2026-02-27 Gudlaugsson Gunnar EVP - Global Operations -$2.3M Transaction at $54.10, now +21.5%
2026-03-27 Trpkovski Peter A EVP, CFO -$845,486.89 Transaction at $50.51, now +30.1%
2026-03-13 Hoffman Robert F SVP, IT and CAO -$594,993.79 Transaction at $56.51, now +16.3%
2026-03-06 Hoffman Robert F SVP, IT and CAO -$563,300 Transaction at $56.33, now +16.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Century Aluminum Company (CENX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CENX on Trend Edge →