AA — Alcoa Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AA Bearish with a Setup Score of 33, net conviction 16, actionability 67. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score33
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction16
Actionability67 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Alcoa Corp

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$42.20
Market Cap$11.30B
Float262.8M
Shares Outstanding263.9M
P/E (Forward)8.04
P/E (TTM)8.90
Price/Sales (TTM)0.83
vs. Analyst Target+47.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.39%
Operating Margin (TTM)18.36%
Revenue (TTM)$13.60B
Earnings Growth (YoY)146.80%
Dividend Rate0.4%
Analyst Target Price$62.23 (13 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $9.37B -$170M $765M $972M
2021 $12.44B $429M $2.62B $2.06B
2022 $12.76B -$123M $1.93B $1.43B
2023 $10.71B -$651M $241M $155M
2024 $11.89B $60.0M $1.50B $1.09B
2025 $12.83B $1.15B $1.73B $1.86B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $3.00B $232M
Dec 2025 $3.45B $213M
Mar 2026 $3.19B $425M
Jun 2026 $3.97B $407M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.5%
Institutional Ownership85.6%
Short Float4.6%
% of All Funds Holding8.00%
Number of Funds Holding704

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$47.20Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$57.33Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$45.43Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$39.72Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$55.82Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$44.81Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$39.61Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Volume shelf data not available.

Historical Earnings Reactions (111 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.00% 0.00% 48.65% 10.78% -11.92%
1 Day -0.74% -0.76% 42.34% 15.23% -16.94%
1 Week 0.04% -0.27% 46.85% 21.64% -23.14%
2 Weeks -0.25% -0.55% 47.75% 27.92% -32.09%
1 Month 1.83% 0.92% 52.73% 48.86% -29.32%

Next earnings: October 15, 2026 (5 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.7%56.0%50
Feb1.9%54.0%50
Mar0.4%54.9%51
Apr2.6%51.0%51
May0.5%54.9%51
Jun-1.0%39.2%51
Jul2.2%56.9%51
Aug0.4%49.0%51
Sep-2.7%43.1%51
Oct-0.8%46.0%50
Nov3.9%58.0%50
Dec4.9%70.0%50

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 46.9% 2402
Tuesday 0.08% 48.1% 2605
Wednesday 0.11% 47.9% 2606
Thursday -0.08% 46.8% 2556
Friday 0.10% 49.3% 2541

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 85.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$1.3M
Net Shares Change-26,928
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Jones Tammi A EVP & CHRO -$790,733.042 1 1 sell
Hastings Andrew EVP & Gen. Counsel -$305,412 1 1 sell
Reed Matthew T EVP, Chief Operations Officer -$215,372 1 1 sell
Bacchi Renato EVP & Chief Commercial Officer -$35,713.51 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-08-18 – 2026-09-01 3 3 -$1.1M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-28 Jones Tammi A EVP & CHRO -$790,733.042 Transaction at $50.60, now -16.6%
2026-08-18 Hastings Andrew EVP & Gen. Counsel -$305,412 Transaction at $50.90, now -17.1%
2026-07-23 Reed Matthew T EVP, Chief Operations Officer -$215,372 Transaction at $46.82, now -9.9%
2026-09-01 Bacchi Renato EVP & Chief Commercial Officer -$35,713.51 Transaction at $51.02, now -17.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Alcoa Corp (AA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AA on Trend Edge →