ASPN — Aspen Aerogels Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ASPN Bearish with a Setup Score of 41, net conviction 27, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score41
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction27
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Aspen Aerogels Inc

Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel materials primarily for use in the energy industrial, sustainable insulation materials, and electric vehicle (EV) markets in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. It operates through two segments: Thermal Barrier and Energy Industrial. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$5.19
Market Cap$424M
Float76.8M
Shares Outstanding83.0M
P/E (Forward)714.29
Price/Sales (TTM)2.10
vs. Analyst Target+49.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-62.45%
Operating Margin (TTM)-29.20%
Revenue (TTM)$202M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$7.75 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $100M -$11.9M $14.6M -$11.4M
2021 $122M -$27.9M $9.9M -$31.2M
2022 $122M -$37.1M $9.9M -$39.0M
2023 $239M -$45.8M $56.9M -$22.3M
2024 $453M $13.4M $183M $51.5M
2025 $271M -$390M $46.0M $5.72B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $73.0M -$6.3M
Dec 2025 $41.3M -$72.9M
Mar 2026 $37.9M -$23.7M
Jun 2026 $49.8M -$23.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership16.2%
Institutional Ownership75.1%
Short Float11.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.04%
Number of Funds Holding179

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$5.33Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$4.30Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$5.41Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$10.64Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$4.22Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$5.73Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.57Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$3.80 support 1.01x 2 months ago
$8.10 resistance 1.52x 8 months ago
$10.90 resistance 1.29x 17 months ago
$27.00 resistance 2.14x 21 months ago
$30.90 resistance 1.24x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (49 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.75% 0.70% 55.10% 31.95% -22.38%
1 Day 2.19% 1.70% 59.18% 56.70% -31.41%
1 Week 3.65% 3.04% 53.06% 75.49% -33.11%
2 Weeks 2.89% -0.97% 48.98% 73.32% -37.27%
1 Month 4.35% 3.53% 58.33% 90.60% -42.94%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-2.0%50.0%12
Feb1.3%41.7%12
Mar-5.7%41.7%12
Apr-2.6%33.3%12
May17.6%83.3%12
Jun6.1%50.0%12
Jul2.3%53.8%13
Aug4.8%41.7%12
Sep5.0%58.3%12
Oct2.0%58.3%12
Nov-6.5%41.7%12
Dec0.1%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 47.6% 576
Tuesday -0.04% 47.2% 632
Wednesday 0.14% 49.6% 629
Thursday 0.10% 47.7% 616
Friday 0.23% 51.2% 613

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 16.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value-$183,609.35
Net Shares Change-56,845
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Young Donald R President and CEO -$183,609.35 1 N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-14 Young Donald R President and CEO -$183,609.35 Transaction at $3.23, now +60.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ASPN on Trend Edge →