GEVO — Gevo Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates GEVO Bearish with a Setup Score of 34, net conviction 27, actionability 44. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score34
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction27
Actionability44 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Gevo Inc

Gevo, Inc. operates as a carbon abatement company. It operates in four segments: Gevo, GevoFuels, GevoRNG, and GevoND. The company offers sustainable aviation fuel, motor fuels, and chemicals and materials; certain specialty fuels, on-road fuels, and certain products for the food chain comprising protein and feeds; hydrocarbons for gasoline, racing fuel blend stocks, and diesel fuel; ethylene and butenes; plastics and materials; and renewable nat… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$1.68
Market Cap$373M
Float228.0M
Shares Outstanding247.2M
Price/Sales (TTM)2.10
vs. Analyst Target+222.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-119.93%
Operating Margin (TTM)-76.79%
Revenue (TTM)$178M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$5.41 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $5.5M -$40.2M -$9.5M -$32.2M
2021 $533,000 -$59.2M -$7.2M -$53.8M
2022 $1.2M -$98.0M -$7.5M -$89.0M
2023 $17.2M -$66.2M $5.2M -$45.0M
2024 $16.9M -$78.6M $4.9M -$56.5M
2025 $161M -$33.8M $48.5M $10.3M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $42.7M -$8.0M
Dec 2025 $45.3M -$6.3M
Mar 2026 $42.9M -$21.7M
Jun 2026 $46.5M -$177M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.1%
Institutional Ownership38.3%
Short Float12.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.67%
Number of Funds Holding147

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$1.55Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$1.87Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$1.71Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$1.50Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$1.91Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$1.72Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$1.46Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$1.30 support 1.76x 11 months ago
$0.80 support 1.50x 22 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (63 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.87% -0.81% 36.51% 40.00% -29.33%
1 Day -2.53% -4.00% 28.57% 59.20% -32.00%
1 Week -3.24% -7.05% 31.75% 44.33% -31.20%
2 Weeks 0.27% -4.84% 39.68% 146.67% -40.23%
1 Month -4.68% -9.12% 32.26% 96.23% -59.90%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.5%33.3%15
Feb-5.4%20.0%15
Mar-4.0%37.5%16
Apr-9.6%12.5%16
May-1.0%50.0%16
Jun-4.7%37.5%16
Jul-5.4%37.5%16
Aug10.2%60.0%15
Sep-4.8%40.0%15
Oct1.7%46.7%15
Nov-0.9%26.7%15
Dec-6.2%33.3%15

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.42% 42.8% 732
Tuesday -0.09% 38.9% 803
Wednesday -0.52% 39.6% 800
Thursday 0.23% 40.3% 787
Friday 0.07% 41.3% 784

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 38.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.1%

Founder-led management: Christopher Michael Ryan (President, Chief Operating Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings42
Net Value-$1.9M
Net Shares Change-1,288,300
% of Float-0.6%
C-Suite Filings35
Clusters Detected6

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Gruber Patrick R. -$373,815.599 1 N/A
Mize Gary W. -$250,078.5 1 1 sell
Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf CFO -$204,651.557 3 1 sell
Barber James J +$77,000 1 1 buy
Bloom Paul D CEO -$48,068.197 1 N/A
Kettner David Michael Chief Legal & Emrg Biz Officer +$19,368.75 1 1 buy
Gendenjamts Davaajargal VP Acctg and Treasurer -$5,943.04 1 1 sell
Battershell Carol Jane -$2,273.407 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-05 – 2025-09-18 6 5 -$164,576.429 6 C-suite
2025-10-15 – 2025-10-23 3 3 -$477,790 2 C-suite
2026-03-12 – 2026-03-12 3 3 -$308,506.965 2 C-suite
2026-05-29 – 2026-05-29 6 6 -$774,073.132 5 C-suite
2026-06-15 – 2026-06-15 7 7 -$450,868.478 6 C-suite
2026-08-07 – 2026-08-07 4 4 -$465,773.33 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-24 Kettner David Michael Chief Legal & Emrg Biz Officer +$19,368.75 Transaction at $1.55, now +8.4%
2026-08-24 Barber James J +$77,000 Transaction at $1.54, now +9.1%
2026-03-12 Mize Gary W. -$250,078.5 Transaction at $2.33, now -28.1%
2026-06-15 Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf CFO -$88,075.327 Transaction at $1.40, now +20.2%
2025-12-05 Gendenjamts Davaajargal VP Acctg and Treasurer -$5,943.04 Transaction at $2.32, now -27.6%
2025-11-14 Battershell Carol Jane -$2,273.407 Transaction at $1.35, now +24.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Gevo Inc (GEVO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for GEVO on Trend Edge →