ALTO — Alto Ingredients Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ALTO Bullish with a Setup Score of 50, net conviction 40, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score50
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction40
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Alto Ingredients Inc

Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in al… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$3.99
Market Cap$324M
Float69.3M
Shares Outstanding77.6M
P/E (Forward)10.74
P/E (TTM)6.24
Price/Sales (TTM)0.34
vs. Analyst Target+125.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.51%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.51%
Revenue (TTM)$943M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-66.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$9.00 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $897M -$15.1M $52.9M $30.9M
2021 $1.21B $46.1M $67.8M $74.4M
2022 $1.34B -$41.6M -$27.6M -$12.8M
2023 $1.22B -$28.0M $15.7M $2.6M
2024 $965M -$59.0M $9.7M -$26.8M
2025 $918M $13.3M $26.8M $48.7M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $241M $14.2M
Dec 2025 $232M $21.8M
Mar 2026 $225M $4.3M
Jun 2026 $246M $11.7M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership6.3%
Institutional Ownership54.9%
Short Float8.6%
% of All Funds Holding1.52%
Number of Funds Holding134

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$4.86Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$4.09Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$2.63Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$2.46Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$4.05Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$2.60Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$2.47Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$2.30 support 2.89x 4 months ago
$1.00 support 4.66x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (84 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.46% -0.92% 42.86% 36.54% -55.49%
1 Day -0.41% -1.31% 35.71% 65.45% -60.77%
1 Week -0.37% -3.49% 39.29% 108.82% -51.42%
2 Weeks -2.14% -3.71% 39.29% 105.88% -58.33%
1 Month 3.61% -6.81% 39.76% 238.24% -57.41%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan15.3%57.1%21
Feb1.7%47.6%21
Mar-4.0%33.3%21
Apr-1.1%45.5%22
May2.5%40.9%22
Jun-9.3%31.8%22
Jul8.1%40.9%22
Aug-0.3%42.9%21
Sep2.9%47.6%21
Oct-2.2%38.1%21
Nov7.9%38.1%21
Dec1.1%57.1%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.14% 43.6% 1010
Tuesday -0.03% 43.0% 1106
Wednesday 0.12% 42.0% 1106
Thursday 0.14% 41.2% 1085
Friday 0.15% 42.1% 1080

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 54.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 6.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change75,000
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
NATHAN GILBERT E +$321,950 2 2 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-12 NATHAN GILBERT E +$207,500 Transaction at $4.15, now -3.9%
2026-05-13 NATHAN GILBERT E +$114,450 Transaction at $4.58, now -12.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ALTO on Trend Edge →