APEI — American Public Education Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About American Public Education Inc

American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education services in the United States. It operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing. The company offers 181 degree programs, 110 certificate programs, and four diploma programs in various fields of study, including public service-focused fields, such as nur… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$52.01
Market Cap$946M
Float14.2M
Shares Outstanding18.3M
P/E (Forward)23.64
P/E (TTM)26.73
Price/Sales (TTM)1.44
vs. Analyst Target+19.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin6.13%
Operating Margin (TTM)12.47%
Revenue (TTM)$659M
Earnings Growth (YoY)129.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$62.17 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $322M $18.8M $200M $38.6M
2021 $419M $17.8M $246M $48.2M
2022 $606M -$115M $318M -$101M
2023 $601M -$47.3M $308M -$20.5M
2024 $625M $16.1M $329M $52.4M
2025 $649M $31.6M $336M $70.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $163M $4.5M
Sep 2025 $163M $5.6M
Dec 2025 $158M $12.6M
Mar 2026 $175M $17.7M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.3%
Institutional Ownership111.0%
Short Float15.7%
% of All Funds Holding2.26%
Number of Funds Holding186

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$56.09Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$43.37Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$34.17Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$20.14Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$43.04Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$33.32Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$21.77Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$46.00 support 1.80x 1 months ago
$29.70 support 1.19x 7 months ago
$23.50 support 1.61x 11 months ago
$14.00 support 1.61x 23 months ago
$10.60 support 1.66x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (75 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.05% -0.77% 40.00% 23.64% -30.86%
1 Day -0.22% 0.76% 50.67% 36.94% -50.76%
1 Week 0.61% 1.84% 53.33% 57.11% -53.89%
2 Weeks 1.09% -0.11% 50.00% 68.97% -48.70%
1 Month 2.45% 1.92% 52.70% 107.21% -41.51%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (63 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.2%42.1%19
Feb0.5%36.8%19
Mar5.1%52.6%19
Apr-1.6%42.1%19
May1.6%50.0%18
Jun3.9%66.7%18
Jul1.3%66.7%18
Aug-10.4%27.8%18
Sep0.4%38.9%18
Oct-0.6%38.9%18
Nov12.0%77.8%18
Dec3.2%57.9%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 48.7% 875
Tuesday 0.12% 50.7% 959
Wednesday 0.12% 52.8% 957
Thursday -0.08% 49.1% 937
Friday 0.25% 50.7% 934

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 111.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings16
Net Value-$2.7M
Net Shares Change-1,007,393
% of Float-7.1%
C-Suite Filings9
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
325 CAPITAL LLC -$36.4M 4 4 sell
Axenson Tanya Joy SVP, Chief HR Officer -$1.1M 1 1 sell
Fernandes Nuno S. President, APUS -$649,647 3 3 sell
SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JR EVP, Chief Financial Officer -$347,014.712 1 1 sell
Gaffney Karmela SVP, Chief Marketing Officer -$150,858.99 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-05-29 – 2025-06-06 6 3 -$17.9M 1 C-suite
2026-03-17 – 2026-03-23 7 5 -$20.8M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-15 Fernandes Nuno S. President, APUS -$240,030 Transaction at $53.34, now -2.5%
2026-03-17 Axenson Tanya Joy SVP, Chief HR Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $55.68, now -6.6%
2026-03-19 Gaffney Karmela SVP, Chief Marketing Officer -$150,858.99 Transaction at $55.87, now -6.9%
2026-03-17 Fernandes Nuno S. President, APUS -$350,129 Transaction at $53.87, now -3.4%
2026-03-20 Fernandes Nuno S. President, APUS -$59,488 Transaction at $54.08, now -3.8%
2026-03-18 325 CAPITAL LLC -$10.2M Transaction at $55.56, now -6.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for American Public Education Inc (APEI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for APEI on Trend Edge →