TAL — TAL Education Group

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TAL Bullish with a Setup Score of 22, net conviction 34, actionability 14. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score22
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction34
Actionability14 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About TAL Education Group

TAL Education Group provides smart learning solutions in the People's Republic of China. It offers learning services through Xueersi Peiyou small classes, personalized premium services, and online course offerings. The company also develops and provides learning content solutions for learners across print, digital and device-based formats, including print books, books integrated with digital learning experiences, learning devices, and mobile appl… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$10.31
Market Cap$5.72B
Float362.2M
Shares Outstanding407.2M
P/E (Forward)15.72
P/E (TTM)11.10
Price/Sales (TTM)1.90
vs. Analyst Target+51.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin17.64%
Operating Margin (TTM)9.03%
Revenue (TTM)$3.01B
Earnings Growth (YoY)535.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$15.59 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $4.51B -$116M $2.45B -$190M
2022 $4.40B -$1.14B $2.19B -$575M
2023 $1.02B -$135M $581M -$75.2M
2024 $1.49B -$3.6M $806M $36.3M
2025 $2.25B $84.6M $1.20B $175M
2026 $3.02B $533M $1.67B $760M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
May 2025 $575M $31.3M
Aug 2025 $861M $124M
Nov 2025 $770M $131M
Feb 2026 $808M $247M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.0%
Institutional Ownership59.8%
Short Float5.9%
% of All Funds Holding2.54%
Number of Funds Holding209

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.90Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$10.96Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$11.04Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.72Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$10.95Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$10.97Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.42Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$13.20 resistance 1.56x 14 months ago
$8.00 support 1.26x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (61 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.13% 0.00% 45.90% 5.06% -5.07%
1 Day 0.24% 0.00% 47.54% 9.52% -8.94%
1 Week -0.85% -1.49% 37.70% 22.65% -19.64%
2 Weeks -0.07% 0.45% 52.46% 22.21% -21.30%
1 Month 2.89% 2.97% 55.00% 25.36% -31.64%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (18 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.0%75.0%16
Feb4.2%62.5%16
Mar-1.0%56.3%16
Apr3.0%68.8%16
May-1.9%37.5%16
Jun2.1%50.0%16
Jul-1.0%53.3%15
Aug-0.9%33.3%15
Sep5.9%66.7%15
Oct3.9%53.3%15
Nov5.1%56.3%16
Dec0.7%62.5%16

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 49.5% 740
Tuesday 0.39% 52.7% 812
Wednesday 0.26% 50.8% 809
Thursday -0.05% 49.2% 795
Friday 0.03% 50.8% 792

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 59.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.0%

Founder-led management: Zhang Bangxin (Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value-$1.0M
Net Shares Change-57,709
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
PENG ALEX ZHUANGZHUANG President and Chief Financial Officer -$1.0M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-04-28 PENG ALEX ZHUANGZHUANG President and Chief Financial Officer -$1.0M Transaction at $10.83, now -4.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for TAL Education Group (TAL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TAL on Trend Edge →