AFYA — Afya Ltd

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AFYA Bearish with a Setup Score of 38, net conviction 28, actionability 52. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score38
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction28
Actionability52 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Afya Ltd

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$14.35
Market Cap$1.23B
Float5.7M
Shares Outstanding49.9M
P/E (Forward)7.13
P/E (TTM)8.36
Price/Sales (TTM)0.32
vs. Analyst Target+16.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin20.44%
Operating Margin (TTM)30.64%
Revenue (TTM)$3.83B
Earnings Growth (YoY)17.60%
Dividend Rate0.7%
Analyst Target Price$16.76 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.20B $292M $767M $473M
2021 $1.72B $223M $1.07B $603M
2022 $2.33B $374M $1.47B $929M
2023 $2.88B $386M $1.77B $1.11B
2024 $3.30B $632M $2.09B $1.22B
2025 $3.62B $738M $2.34B $1.34B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $929M $155M
Dec 2025 $927M $176M
Mar 2026 $994M $252M
Jun 2026 $994M $202M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership78.2%
Institutional Ownership20.1%
Short Float7.3%
% of All Funds Holding0.63%
Number of Funds Holding55

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$14.30Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$14.43Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$15.44Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$15.96Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$14.59Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$15.53Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$16.30Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$13.40 support 1.08x 4 months ago
$15.60 resistance 1.26x 9 months ago
$17.80 resistance 1.01x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (29 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.22% 0.07% 55.17% 10.36% -8.46%
1 Day 0.06% 1.93% 68.97% 11.16% -30.23%
1 Week 2.62% 4.68% 75.86% 13.11% -26.54%
2 Weeks 2.88% 3.31% 64.29% 22.44% -25.61%
1 Month 4.03% 6.33% 64.29% 24.35% -19.81%

Next earnings: November 1, 2026 (67 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-3.3%28.6%7
Feb-7.9%42.9%7
Mar-3.2%42.9%7
Apr5.5%71.4%7
May-4.7%28.6%7
Jun5.9%71.4%7
Jul-1.0%57.1%7
Aug-1.6%28.6%7
Sep4.5%85.7%7
Oct-2.7%42.9%7
Nov3.8%71.4%7
Dec2.2%57.1%7

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.21% 48.1% 335
Tuesday 0.29% 50.9% 369
Wednesday -0.05% 49.6% 365
Thursday 0.28% 52.2% 358
Friday -0.26% 43.0% 356

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 20.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 78.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings13
Net Value-$3.2M
Net Shares Change-213,102
% of Float-3.7%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Junior Lelio de Souza Vice President -$1.6M 3 3 sell
Gibbon Virgilio Deloy Capobianco Chief Executive Officer -$650,449.915 2 2 sell
GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE VP Legal, Comp., & Gov Rel. -$291,769.4 2 2 sell
Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero Chief Financial Officer -$152,000 1 1 sell
Basolli Gomiero Mirella Vice President -$148,000 1 1 sell
FERREIRA SANTOS WELDER Controller -$52,867.5 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-27 – 2026-04-10 8 4 -$1.6M 8 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-30 Junior Lelio de Souza Vice President -$623,115 Transaction at $15.00, now -4.3%
2026-06-30 Basolli Gomiero Mirella Vice President -$148,000 Transaction at $14.80, now -3.0%
2026-07-06 Junior Lelio de Souza Vice President -$543,060 Transaction at $15.00, now -4.3%
2026-04-14 GRIFO DE SOUSA ANIBAL JOSE VP Legal, Comp., & Gov Rel. -$215,769.4 Transaction at $15.41, now -6.9%
2026-04-10 Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero Chief Financial Officer -$152,000 Transaction at $15.20, now -5.6%
2026-04-09 Junior Lelio de Souza Vice President -$399,957.35 Transaction at $14.95, now -4.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Afya Ltd (AFYA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AFYA on Trend Edge →