AFL — Aflac Incorporated

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AFL Bullish with a Setup Score of 27, net conviction 33, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score27
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction33
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Aflac Incorporated

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$123.30
Market Cap$62.09B
Float504.6M
Shares Outstanding509.0M
P/E (Forward)14.53
P/E (TTM)13.93
Price/Sales (TTM)3.43
vs. Analyst Target-8.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin25.60%
Operating Margin (TTM)29.57%
Revenue (TTM)$18.11B
Earnings Growth (YoY)3860.00%
Dividend Rate2.4%
Analyst Target Price$112.36 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $22.15B $4.78B $22.15B $5.37B
2021 $22.11B $4.33B $22.11B $6.49B
2022 $19.15B $4.42B $19.15B $4.87B
2023 $18.84B $4.66B $18.84B $5.26B
2024 $19.13B $5.44B $6.82B $6.42B
2025 $17.44B $3.65B $6.79B $5.53B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.22B $599M
Sep 2025 $4.79B $1.64B
Dec 2025 $4.90B $1.38B
Mar 2026 $4.32B $1.02B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership10.8%
Institutional Ownership59.7%
Short Float2.1%
% of All Funds Holding18.79%
Number of Funds Holding1,544

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$118.48Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$112.78Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$109.23Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$92.76Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$112.80Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$109.75Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$97.90Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$112.00 support 1.24x 0 months ago
$107.00 support 1.16x 9 months ago
$100.00 support 1.28x 10 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (129 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.10% 0.17% 51.94% 9.44% -11.30%
1 Day 0.47% 0.44% 55.81% 16.08% -19.89%
1 Week 1.79% 1.09% 60.47% 26.91% -9.05%
2 Weeks 2.26% 1.17% 63.57% 27.49% -16.41%
1 Month 1.69% 1.83% 59.38% 26.14% -27.95%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.3%60.9%46
Feb0.0%54.3%46
Mar2.0%54.3%46
Apr4.4%70.2%47
May0.3%51.1%47
Jun0.1%46.8%47
Jul2.7%60.9%46
Aug0.9%56.5%46
Sep1.0%56.5%46
Oct2.6%56.5%46
Nov2.7%58.7%46
Dec1.5%52.2%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 45.9% 2206
Tuesday 0.13% 49.1% 2395
Wednesday 0.10% 48.6% 2393
Thursday 0.17% 49.1% 2347
Friday 0.08% 48.7% 2331

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 59.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 10.8%

Founder-led management: Daniel P. Amos (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings75
Net Value-$10.2M
Net Shares Change-1,469,968
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings12
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
BEAVER STEVEN KENT EVP, CFO Aflac Japan -$1.9M 3 3 sell
Broden Max Sr. EVP, CFO -$1.5M 1 1 sell
TILLMAN AUDREY B Sr. Executive Vice President -$1.3M 1 1 sell
LAKE CHARLES D II Chairman & Rep. Director, ALIJ -$1.3M 2 2 sell
MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L -$536,312.533 1 1 sell
Collins Arthur Reginald -$268,065 1 1 sell
KENNY THOMAS J -$202,831.8 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-20 5 3 -$1.9M 3 C-suite
2026-03-05 – 2026-03-19 14 4 -$25.5M 2 C-suite
2026-05-07 – 2026-05-21 12 6 -$26.2M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-24 MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L -$536,312.533 Transaction at $80.57, now +53.0%
2026-05-07 LAKE CHARLES D II Chairman & Rep. Director, ALIJ -$737,308 Transaction at $113.43, now +8.7%
2026-05-18 KENNY THOMAS J -$202,831.8 Transaction at $116.57, now +5.8%
2026-05-15 Collins Arthur Reginald -$268,065 Transaction at $116.55, now +5.8%
2026-05-27 BEAVER STEVEN KENT EVP, CFO Aflac Japan -$453,253.32 Transaction at $76.67, now +60.8%
2026-02-24 BEAVER STEVEN KENT EVP, CFO Aflac Japan -$839,015.46 Transaction at $113.58, now +8.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Aflac Incorporated (AFL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AFL on Trend Edge →