Short Squeeze Setup — velZ +0.62 · age 29w×0.97 · 2.38%
Seasonal Tailwind — december med 2.8% (mag 1/3) · posClose 60.87% (rel 1/3) · n46 ×0.5 = 2.5
Founder-Led — founder/CEO led
Earnings Tailwind — ER in 26.176d · w1 med 0.9% (mag 1/3) · winRate 60.7% (rel 2/3) · n122
About American Financial Group, Inc.
American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It operates through Property and Casualty Insurance and Other segments. The company offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, other specialty transportation niches, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other com… Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Insurance-Property & Casualty
Exchange: NYSE
IPO Date: April 6, 1983
Headquarters: 301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH, United States, 45202
Hidden Gem: Yes — undiscovered relative to its market cap tier
Founder-Led: Yes — Carl H. Lindner Jr. (Co-Chief Executive Officer/Co-President and Director)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$139.02
Market Cap
$11.45B
Float
66.6M
Shares Outstanding
82.9M
P/E (Forward)
11.53
P/E (TTM)
12.06
Price/Sales (TTM)
1.42
vs. Analyst Target
+12.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
11.83%
Operating Margin (TTM)
17.24%
Revenue (TTM)
$8.06B
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.30%
Dividend Rate
3.5%
Analyst Target Price
$155.83 (7 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$5.67B
$732M
$301M
$726M
2021
$6.23B
$2.00B
$1.37B
$1.62B
2022
$6.77B
$898M
$1.20B
$1.31B
2023
$7.73B
$852M
$1.35B
$1.23B
2024
$8.28B
$887M
$1.47B
$1.28B
2025
$8.12B
$842M
$1.43B
$1.24B
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Sep 2025
$2.30B
$215M
Dec 2025
$2.04B
$299M
Mar 2026
$1.84B
$191M
Jun 2026
$1.99B
$248M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
20.3%
Institutional Ownership
68.4%
Short Float
2.4%
% of All Funds Holding
5.83%
Number of Funds Holding
513
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$142.25
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$135.30
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$133.56
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$128.75
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$135.40
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$133.74
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$130.16
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$129.00
support
1.08x
3 months ago
$147.00
resistance
1.05x
21 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
0.16%
0.00%
47.54%
4.39%
-2.09%
1 Day
0.27%
0.20%
53.28%
5.06%
-8.82%
1 Week
0.58%
0.88%
60.66%
12.33%
-19.27%
2 Weeks
0.85%
1.10%
59.02%
15.99%
-20.66%
1 Month
1.29%
1.50%
57.85%
21.20%
-26.06%
Next earnings: November 3, 2026 (25 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
-1.5%
39.1%
46
Feb
1.0%
60.9%
46
Mar
1.5%
58.7%
46
Apr
1.9%
70.2%
47
May
1.4%
57.4%
47
Jun
-0.2%
59.6%
47
Jul
1.2%
46.8%
47
Aug
-0.2%
46.8%
47
Sep
-0.7%
46.8%
47
Oct
-0.2%
54.3%
46
Nov
3.6%
65.2%
46
Dec
3.0%
60.9%
46
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
-0.05%
46.2%
2218
Tuesday
0.10%
48.8%
2407
Wednesday
0.04%
47.3%
2405
Thursday
0.03%
48.6%
2359
Friday
0.10%
48.0%
2343
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 68.4%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 20.3%
Founder-led management: Carl H. Lindner Jr. (Co-Chief Executive Officer/Co-President and Director)
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qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
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