ADTN — ADTRAN Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About ADTRAN Inc

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. It offers residential gateways; ethernet passive optical network ONUs; gigabit passive optical network/XGS-PON ONTs; routers, and switches; edge cloud; carrier ethernet network interface devices; O… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$19.40
Market Cap$1.20B
Float78.9M
Shares Outstanding81.0M
P/E (Forward)35.34
Price/Sales (TTM)1.07
vs. Analyst Target+0.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-3.18%
Operating Margin (TTM)2.28%
Revenue (TTM)$1.12B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-60.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$19.50 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $507M $2.4M $218M $10.4M
2021 $563M -$8.6M $218M $9.8M
2022 $1.03B -$2.0M $327M $27,000
2023 $1.15B -$268M $331M -$104M
2024 $923M -$460M $324M -$330M
2025 $1.08B -$45.7M $415M $80.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $265M -$20.5M
Sep 2025 $279M -$10.3M
Dec 2025 $292M -$3.6M
Mar 2026 $286M -$1.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.2%
Institutional Ownership105.5%
Short Float14.1%
% of All Funds Holding2.54%
Number of Funds Holding209

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$15.82Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$10.88Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.89Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$10.36Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$11.49Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$10.07Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$9.00Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.80 support 1.62x 0 months ago
$9.90 support 1.21x 1 months ago
$4.40 support 1.07x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.35% 0.40% 54.55% 7.83% -20.90%
1 Day 0.34% 0.12% 51.24% 13.30% -19.25%
1 Week -0.26% -0.47% 47.11% 21.37% -15.38%
2 Weeks -1.03% -1.17% 46.28% 18.28% -21.37%
1 Month 0.36% -0.35% 48.33% 38.08% -28.82%

Next earnings: July 24, 2026 (57 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.4%62.5%32
Feb0.9%50.0%32
Mar-3.4%34.4%32
Apr4.4%56.3%32
May5.0%64.5%31
Jun1.4%48.4%31
Jul2.6%58.1%31
Aug-2.4%38.7%31
Sep-2.0%43.8%32
Oct0.6%43.8%32
Nov3.1%50.0%32
Dec1.1%53.1%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 49.0% 1503
Tuesday -0.07% 48.2% 1643
Wednesday 0.16% 50.2% 1641
Thursday 0.06% 48.9% 1609
Friday 0.14% 50.5% 1604

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 105.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$414,641.859
Net Shares Change25,730
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Glingener Christoph Chief Technology Officer -$626,600.059 1 N/A
STANTON THOMAS R Chairman and CEO +$300,002.24 1 1 buy
Jacqueline Hourigan Rice -$148,237.74 1 1 sell
Wilson James Denson Jr Chief Revenue Officer -$137,367.04 1 1 sell
Theodosopoulos Nikos +$100,428.79 1 1 buy
Santo Timothy P SVP of Finance; CFO +$49,323 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-25 – 2025-12-01 3 3 +$449,754.03 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-22 Wilson James Denson Jr Chief Revenue Officer -$137,367.04 Transaction at $14.72, now +31.8%
2025-12-01 Santo Timothy P SVP of Finance; CFO +$49,323 Transaction at $8.02, now +141.9%
2026-03-05 Jacqueline Hourigan Rice -$148,237.74 Transaction at $10.29, now +88.5%
2025-12-01 Theodosopoulos Nikos +$100,428.79 Transaction at $7.81, now +148.4%
2025-11-25 STANTON THOMAS R Chairman and CEO +$300,002.24 Transaction at $7.33, now +164.7%
2026-05-11 Glingener Christoph Chief Technology Officer -$626,600.059 Transaction at $12.85, now +51.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for ADTRAN Inc (ADTN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ADTN on Trend Edge →