Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge Setup Score
Trend Edge rates AAOI Bullish with a Setup Score of 37, net conviction 54, actionability 25. How the Setup Score works →
Total Setup Score
37
Directional Bias
Bullish
Net Conviction
54
Actionability
25 (in range)
Key signals behind this score
40wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 102 vs px 113)
80wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 62.30 vs px 113)
200wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 32.27 vs px 113)
Funds Accumulating — momZ +8.42 · 4.26→5.45
Short Squeeze Setup — velZ +0.72 · age 99w×0.45 · 12.96%
Founder-Led — founder/CEO led
About Applied Opt
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. The company offers optical modules, optical filters, lasers, laser components, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, turn-key equipment, headend, node, and distribution equipment, as well as amplifiers. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Founder-Led: Yes — Thompson Lin (Founder, Chairman, President & CEO)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$113.76
Market Cap
$10.92B
Float
80.5M
Shares Outstanding
84.6M
P/E (Forward)
84.03
Price/Sales (TTM)
18.32
vs. Analyst Target
+43.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
-9.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)
-12.88%
Revenue (TTM)
$596M
Dividend Rate
None
Analyst Target Price
$163.40 (5 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$235M
-$58.5M
$50.5M
-$20.9M
2021
$212M
-$54.2M
$37.7M
-$23.2M
2022
$223M
-$66.4M
$33.6M
-$36.9M
2023
$218M
-$56.0M
$58.9M
-$26.2M
2024
$249M
-$187M
$61.8M
-$159M
2025
$456M
-$38.2M
$137M
-$15.5M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Sep 2025
$119M
-$17.9M
Dec 2025
$134M
-$2.0M
Mar 2026
$151M
-$14.3M
Jun 2026
$192M
-$22.8M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
9.9%
Institutional Ownership
62.4%
Short Float
13.0%
% of All Funds Holding
5.45%
Number of Funds Holding
479
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$119.79
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$102.28
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$62.30
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$32.28
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$95.31
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$59.03
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$36.59
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$143.00
resistance
1.07x
0 months ago
$82.00
support
1.68x
3 months ago
$43.00
support
1.05x
5 months ago
$25.80
support
1.05x
7 months ago
$25.30
support
1.25x
9 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (52 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
-1.20%
-2.16%
34.62%
27.01%
-32.48%
1 Day
-0.73%
-3.19%
32.69%
67.07%
-32.18%
1 Week
1.96%
-4.30%
46.15%
88.01%
-38.27%
2 Weeks
3.25%
-0.92%
48.08%
112.23%
-37.00%
1 Month
8.02%
1.04%
50.98%
121.52%
-40.13%
Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
0.6%
38.5%
13
Feb
13.8%
53.8%
13
Mar
-6.8%
38.5%
13
Apr
1.9%
38.5%
13
May
7.3%
53.8%
13
Jun
16.4%
53.8%
13
Jul
3.9%
53.8%
13
Aug
14.1%
66.7%
12
Sep
1.2%
50.0%
12
Oct
-3.9%
53.8%
13
Nov
14.4%
53.8%
13
Dec
1.3%
46.2%
13
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
0.32%
48.0%
610
Tuesday
0.02%
45.7%
669
Wednesday
0.54%
50.5%
664
Thursday
-0.03%
49.4%
652
Friday
0.36%
48.5%
650
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 62.4%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 9.9%
Founder-led management: Thompson Lin (Founder, Chairman, President & CEO)
12-Month Insider Activity Summary
Total Filings
42
Net Value
-$158M
Net Shares Change
342,205
% of Float
0.4%
C-Suite Filings
34
Clusters Detected
4
Key Insiders
Name
Title
Net Value
Filings
Activity
Lin Chih-Hsiang (Thompson)
President and CEO
-$24.8M
1
1 sell
Murry Stefan J.
Chief Financial Officer
-$22.2M
2
2 sell
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred)
*** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager
-$11.2M
2
2 sell
Yeh Shu-Hua (Joshua)
Senior Vice President and Asia General Manager.
-$10.9M
2
2 sell
Kuo David C
***Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
-$8.2M
1
1 sell
Chen Min-Chu (Mike)
-$2.9M
2
3 sell
Transaction Clusters
Period
Filings
Insiders
Net Value
Seniority
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-10
8
7
-$20.6M
3 C-suite
2026-05-13 – 2026-05-19
6
5
-$65.0M
6 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-11
5
5
-$15.9M
3 C-suite
2026-06-16 – 2026-06-18
7
5
-$70.8M
7 C-suite
Significant Filings
Date
Insider
Title
Net Value
Price After
2026-06-16
Murry Stefan J.
Chief Financial Officer
-$10.7M
Transaction at $169.66, now -32.9%
2026-06-16
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred)
*** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager
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The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
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share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
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