Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Trend Edge Setup Score
Trend Edge rates AAOI Bullish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 50, actionability 30. How the Setup Score works →
Total Setup Score
39
Directional Bias
Bullish
Net Conviction
50
Actionability
30 (in range)
Key signals behind this score
40wk Uptrend — trend only (sma 113 vs px 110)
80wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 68.70 vs px 110)
200wk Uptrend — rising+above (sma 35.39 vs px 110)
Funds Accumulating — momZ +8.42 · 4.26→5.45
Founder-Led — founder/CEO led
About Applied Opt
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. The company offers optical modules, optical filters, lasers, laser components, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, turn-key equipment, headend, node, and distribution equipment, as well as amplifiers. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Founder-Led: Yes — Thompson Lin (Founder, Chairman, President & CEO)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$109.64
Market Cap
$8.99B
Float
80.6M
Shares Outstanding
84.9M
P/E (Forward)
84.03
Price/Sales (TTM)
15.09
vs. Analyst Target
+49.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
-9.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)
-12.88%
Revenue (TTM)
$596M
Dividend Rate
None
Analyst Target Price
$163.40 (6 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$235M
-$58.5M
$50.5M
-$20.9M
2021
$212M
-$54.2M
$37.7M
-$23.2M
2022
$223M
-$66.4M
$33.6M
-$36.9M
2023
$218M
-$56.0M
$58.9M
-$26.2M
2024
$249M
-$187M
$61.8M
-$159M
2025
$456M
-$38.2M
$137M
-$15.5M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Sep 2025
$119M
-$17.9M
Dec 2025
$134M
-$2.0M
Mar 2026
$151M
-$14.3M
Jun 2026
$192M
-$22.8M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
9.8%
Institutional Ownership
63.4%
Short Float
15.0%
% of All Funds Holding
5.45%
Number of Funds Holding
479
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$115.97
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$113.33
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$68.70
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$35.39
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$109.43
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$66.69
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$41.45
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$135.00
resistance
1.04x
2 months ago
$195.00
resistance
1.66x
3 months ago
$82.00
support
1.68x
5 months ago
$43.00
support
1.05x
7 months ago
$25.80
support
1.05x
9 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (52 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
-1.59%
-2.77%
32.69%
27.01%
-32.48%
1 Day
-0.98%
-3.34%
30.77%
67.07%
-32.18%
1 Week
1.58%
-4.30%
46.15%
88.01%
-38.27%
2 Weeks
3.25%
-0.92%
48.08%
112.23%
-37.00%
1 Month
7.61%
0.52%
50.00%
121.52%
-40.13%
Next earnings: November 5, 2026 (24 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
0.6%
38.5%
13
Feb
13.8%
53.8%
13
Mar
-6.8%
38.5%
13
Apr
1.9%
38.5%
13
May
7.3%
53.8%
13
Jun
16.4%
53.8%
13
Jul
3.9%
53.8%
13
Aug
14.1%
69.2%
13
Sep
0.5%
46.2%
13
Oct
-3.9%
53.8%
13
Nov
14.4%
53.8%
13
Dec
1.3%
46.2%
13
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
0.31%
48.1%
615
Tuesday
0.03%
45.8%
675
Wednesday
0.53%
50.3%
670
Thursday
-0.03%
49.2%
658
Friday
0.38%
48.8%
656
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 63.4%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 9.8%
Founder-led management: Thompson Lin (Founder, Chairman, President & CEO)
12-Month Insider Activity Summary
Total Filings
45
Net Value
-$163M
Net Shares Change
300,033
% of Float
0.4%
C-Suite Filings
37
Clusters Detected
4
Key Insiders
Name
Title
Net Value
Filings
Activity
Lin Chih-Hsiang (Thompson)
President and CEO
-$26.5M
1
1 sell
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred)
*** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager
-$24.9M
3
3 sell
Murry Stefan J.
Chief Financial Officer
-$22.2M
2
2 sell
Yeh Shu-Hua (Joshua)
Senior Vice President and Asia General Manager.
-$17.1M
2
2 sell
Kuo David C
***Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
-$15.1M
2
2 sell
Transaction Clusters
Period
Filings
Insiders
Net Value
Seniority
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-10
8
7
-$20.6M
3 C-suite
2026-05-13 – 2026-05-19
6
5
-$65.0M
6 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-11
5
5
-$15.9M
3 C-suite
2026-06-16 – 2026-06-18
7
5
-$70.8M
7 C-suite
Significant Filings
Date
Insider
Title
Net Value
Price After
2026-09-10
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred)
*** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager
-$3.5M
Transaction at $110.21, now -0.5%
2026-06-16
Murry Stefan J.
Chief Financial Officer
-$10.7M
Transaction at $169.66, now -35.4%
2026-06-16
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred)
*** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager
-$10.4M
Transaction at $169.66, now -35.4%
2026-05-19
Murry Stefan J.
Chief Financial Officer
-$11.5M
Transaction at $181.81, now -39.7%
2026-05-19
Lin Chih-Hsiang (Thompson)
President and CEO
-$26.5M
Transaction at $181.81, now -39.7%
2026-05-19
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred)
*** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager
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The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
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share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
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