AAOI — Applied Opt

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AAOI Bullish with a Setup Score of 37, net conviction 54, actionability 25. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score37
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction54
Actionability25 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Applied Opt

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. The company offers optical modules, optical filters, lasers, laser components, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, turn-key equipment, headend, node, and distribution equipment, as well as amplifiers. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$113.76
Market Cap$10.92B
Float80.5M
Shares Outstanding84.6M
P/E (Forward)84.03
Price/Sales (TTM)18.32
vs. Analyst Target+43.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-9.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)-12.88%
Revenue (TTM)$596M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$163.40 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $235M -$58.5M $50.5M -$20.9M
2021 $212M -$54.2M $37.7M -$23.2M
2022 $223M -$66.4M $33.6M -$36.9M
2023 $218M -$56.0M $58.9M -$26.2M
2024 $249M -$187M $61.8M -$159M
2025 $456M -$38.2M $137M -$15.5M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $119M -$17.9M
Dec 2025 $134M -$2.0M
Mar 2026 $151M -$14.3M
Jun 2026 $192M -$22.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership9.9%
Institutional Ownership62.4%
Short Float13.0%
% of All Funds Holding5.45%
Number of Funds Holding479

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$119.79Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$102.28Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$62.30Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$32.28Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$95.31Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$59.03Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$36.59Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$143.00 resistance 1.07x 0 months ago
$82.00 support 1.68x 3 months ago
$43.00 support 1.05x 5 months ago
$25.80 support 1.05x 7 months ago
$25.30 support 1.25x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (52 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -1.20% -2.16% 34.62% 27.01% -32.48%
1 Day -0.73% -3.19% 32.69% 67.07% -32.18%
1 Week 1.96% -4.30% 46.15% 88.01% -38.27%
2 Weeks 3.25% -0.92% 48.08% 112.23% -37.00%
1 Month 8.02% 1.04% 50.98% 121.52% -40.13%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.6%38.5%13
Feb13.8%53.8%13
Mar-6.8%38.5%13
Apr1.9%38.5%13
May7.3%53.8%13
Jun16.4%53.8%13
Jul3.9%53.8%13
Aug14.1%66.7%12
Sep1.2%50.0%12
Oct-3.9%53.8%13
Nov14.4%53.8%13
Dec1.3%46.2%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.32% 48.0% 610
Tuesday 0.02% 45.7% 669
Wednesday 0.54% 50.5% 664
Thursday -0.03% 49.4% 652
Friday 0.36% 48.5% 650

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 62.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 9.9%

Founder-led management: Thompson Lin (Founder, Chairman, President & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings42
Net Value-$158M
Net Shares Change342,205
% of Float0.4%
C-Suite Filings34
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lin Chih-Hsiang (Thompson) President and CEO -$24.8M 1 1 sell
Murry Stefan J. Chief Financial Officer -$22.2M 2 2 sell
Chang Hung-Lun (Fred) *** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager -$11.2M 2 2 sell
Yeh Shu-Hua (Joshua) Senior Vice President and Asia General Manager. -$10.9M 2 2 sell
Kuo David C ***Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer -$8.2M 1 1 sell
Chen Min-Chu (Mike) -$2.9M 2 3 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-10 8 7 -$20.6M 3 C-suite
2026-05-13 – 2026-05-19 6 5 -$65.0M 6 C-suite
2026-05-28 – 2026-06-11 5 5 -$15.9M 3 C-suite
2026-06-16 – 2026-06-18 7 5 -$70.8M 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-16 Murry Stefan J. Chief Financial Officer -$10.7M Transaction at $169.66, now -32.9%
2026-06-16 Chang Hung-Lun (Fred) *** Senior Vice President and North America General Manager -$10.4M Transaction at $169.66, now -32.9%
2026-06-16 Yeh Shu-Hua (Joshua) Senior Vice President and Asia General Manager. -$8.8M Transaction at $169.66, now -32.9%
2026-06-16 Kuo David C ***Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer -$8.2M Transaction at $169.66, now -32.9%
2026-06-16 Lin Chih-Hsiang (Thompson) President and CEO -$24.8M Transaction at $169.66, now -32.9%
2026-06-08 Yeh Shu-Hua (Joshua) Senior Vice President and Asia General Manager. -$2.1M Transaction at $205.07, now -44.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Applied Opt (AAOI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AAOI on Trend Edge →