AAON — AAON Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About AAON Inc

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$139.54
Market Cap$10.84B
Float68.0M
Shares Outstanding81.9M
P/E (Forward)63.69
P/E (TTM)93.23
Price/Sales (TTM)6.71
vs. Analyst Target+2.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin7.31%
Operating Margin (TTM)11.55%
Revenue (TTM)$1.62B
Earnings Growth (YoY)37.10%
Dividend Rate0.4%
Analyst Target Price$143.50 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $515M $79.0M $156M $121M
2021 $535M $58.8M $138M $99.7M
2022 $889M $100M $238M $163M
2023 $1.17B $178M $399M $275M
2024 $1.20B $169M $397M $272M
2025 $1.44B $108M $386M $226M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $312M $15.5M
Sep 2025 $384M $30.8M
Dec 2025 $424M $32.0M
Mar 2026 $497M $39.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership16.9%
Institutional Ownership87.8%
Short Float10.0%
% of All Funds Holding4.49%
Number of Funds Holding369

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$109.25Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$95.44Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$96.78Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$79.92Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$95.24Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$96.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$85.49Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$94.00 support 1.26x 0 months ago
$73.00 support 1.73x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.43% 0.00% 48.76% 10.05% -5.70%
1 Day 1.01% 0.19% 54.55% 16.07% -13.74%
1 Week 1.87% 2.33% 57.85% 22.41% -30.00%
2 Weeks 2.11% 2.92% 65.29% 29.63% -24.09%
1 Month 2.67% 2.48% 58.33% 35.81% -22.31%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.2%50.0%34
Feb3.4%70.6%34
Mar4.7%70.6%34
Apr3.5%58.8%34
May2.8%51.5%33
Jun1.8%54.5%33
Jul1.9%45.5%33
Aug-0.9%45.5%33
Sep-0.3%42.4%33
Oct1.0%54.5%33
Nov7.4%81.8%33
Dec0.2%57.6%33

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 47.5% 1582
Tuesday 0.11% 49.1% 1729
Wednesday 0.11% 47.9% 1726
Thursday 0.26% 49.0% 1694
Friday 0.17% 49.3% 1685

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 87.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 16.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings20
Net Value-$7.9M
Net Shares Change-3,302
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Fields Gary D -$6.6M 3 3 sell
Thompson Rebecca Chief Accounting Officer -$2.2M 3 3 sell
Tobolski Matthew Joseph Chief Executive Officer -$1.1M 1 1 sell
Wakefield Stephen E Executive Vice President +$484,400.19 1 2 buy
Wichman Gordon Douglas Executive Vice President -$338,430 1 1 sell
Kidwell Casey Chief Administration Officer -$181,838.24 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-11 – 2026-05-15 5 4 -$7.1M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-12-15 Wakefield Stephen E Executive Vice President +$484,400.19 Transaction at $79.57, now +75.4%
2026-05-14 Tobolski Matthew Joseph Chief Executive Officer -$1.1M Transaction at $135.37, now +3.1%
2026-05-27 Wichman Gordon Douglas Executive Vice President -$338,430 Transaction at $83.98, now +66.1%
2026-05-15 Kidwell Casey Chief Administration Officer -$181,838.24 Transaction at $109.47, now +27.5%
2026-05-27 Fields Gary D -$1.9M Transaction at $94.62, now +47.5%
2026-05-14 Fields Gary D -$1.9M Transaction at $86.86, now +60.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AAON Inc (AAON) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AAON on Trend Edge →