BLDR — Builders FirstSource Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates BLDR Bearish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 31, actionability 50. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score39
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction31
Actionability50 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Builders FirstSource Inc

Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials for professional builders in new residential construction and repair, and remodeling in the United States. It offers manufactured products, such as factory-built substitutes for job-site framing, wood floor and roof trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood; Ready-Frame, a whole house framing solution; manufactured and semi-custom modular homes, and built in a… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$52.85
Market Cap$5.79B
Float104.5M
Shares Outstanding107.6M
P/E (Forward)13.95
P/E (TTM)58.49
Price/Sales (TTM)0.40
vs. Analyst Target+43.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.71%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.33%
Revenue (TTM)$14.45B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-82.90%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$76.05 (23 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $8.56B $314M $2.22B $660M
2021 $19.89B $1.73B $5.85B $2.93B
2022 $22.73B $2.75B $7.74B $4.24B
2023 $17.10B $1.54B $6.01B $2.73B
2024 $16.40B $1.08B $5.38B $2.16B
2025 $15.19B $435M $4.41B $1.38B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $3.94B $122M
Dec 2025 $3.36B $31.5M
Mar 2026 $3.29B -$47.4M
Jun 2026 $3.86B -$3.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.7%
Institutional Ownership101.9%
Short Float7.5%
% of All Funds Holding7.50%
Number of Funds Holding660

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$63.77Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$83.37Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$101.78Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$126.67Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$78.86Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$98.79Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$130.03Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$65.00 resistance 1.55x 0 months ago
$86.00 resistance 1.03x 2 months ago
$101.00 resistance 1.24x 6 months ago
$136.00 resistance 1.04x 12 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (85 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.83% 0.38% 57.65% 10.42% -8.19%
1 Day 0.07% -0.64% 43.53% 14.14% -15.78%
1 Week 0.31% -0.42% 48.24% 28.51% -27.04%
2 Weeks 0.11% -0.72% 45.88% 82.24% -45.34%
1 Month 0.32% -0.38% 50.00% 75.66% -69.94%

Next earnings: October 29, 2026 (17 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%57.1%21
Feb3.7%52.4%21
Mar2.9%61.9%21
Apr8.8%47.6%21
May0.7%47.6%21
Jun-1.3%42.9%21
Jul2.9%59.1%22
Aug4.4%59.1%22
Sep-4.5%50.0%22
Oct-3.7%42.9%21
Nov1.7%61.9%21
Dec6.8%71.4%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.12% 49.0% 1002
Tuesday 0.08% 49.3% 1098
Wednesday 0.03% 49.8% 1099
Thursday 0.24% 51.1% 1078
Friday 0.10% 49.4% 1073

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 101.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change45,000
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
LEVY PAUL S +$4.4M 1 1 buy
Rush David E -$390,850 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-16 LEVY PAUL S +$4.4M Transaction at $87.73, now -39.8%
2026-05-12 Rush David E -$390,850 Transaction at $78.17, now -32.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for BLDR on Trend Edge →