UPS — United Parcel Service Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates UPS Bearish with a Setup Score of 40, net conviction 26, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score40
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction26
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About United Parcel Service Inc

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$102.29
Market Cap$88.06B
Float748.5M
Shares Outstanding749.3M
P/E (Forward)12.92
P/E (TTM)19.17
Price/Sales (TTM)0.98
vs. Analyst Target+13.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin5.08%
Operating Margin (TTM)9.05%
Revenue (TTM)$89.93B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-53.00%
Dividend Rate6.6%
Analyst Target Price$116.08 (32 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $84.43B $1.34B $21.78B $5.23B
2021 $97.20B $12.89B $17.43B $20.23B
2022 $100.03B $11.55B $20.08B $18.71B
2023 $90.75B $6.71B $17.71B $12.71B
2024 $90.89B $5.78B $17.06B $11.91B
2025 $88.66B $5.57B $16.03B $11.93B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $21.41B $1.31B
Dec 2025 $24.48B $1.79B
Mar 2026 $21.20B $864M
Jun 2026 $22.83B $604M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.0%
Institutional Ownership73.4%
Short Float3.5%
% of All Funds Holding24.11%
Number of Funds Holding2,121

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$107.85Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$105.61Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$101.05Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$133.30Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$105.35Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$101.28Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$123.37Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$114.00 resistance 1.14x 5 months ago
$84.00 support 1.30x 10 months ago
$119.00 resistance 1.27x 17 months ago
$127.00 resistance 1.47x 19 months ago
$136.00 resistance 1.15x 20 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (107 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.09% 0.00% 45.79% 8.83% -3.08%
1 Day 0.04% -0.04% 49.53% 13.07% -4.15%
1 Week 0.22% -0.33% 43.93% 13.90% -10.98%
2 Weeks 0.45% -0.10% 48.60% 15.67% -10.97%
1 Month 0.81% 0.29% 52.83% 23.29% -12.79%

Next earnings: October 27, 2026 (49 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-3.0%37.0%27
Feb-0.6%55.6%27
Mar2.4%74.1%27
Apr1.0%59.3%27
May-1.0%48.1%27
Jun0.3%55.6%27
Jul1.7%51.9%27
Aug-0.3%44.4%27
Sep-0.8%53.8%26
Oct1.8%53.8%26
Nov4.1%76.9%26
Dec-1.2%40.7%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.00% 49.6% 1266
Tuesday 0.01% 49.0% 1383
Wednesday -0.01% 48.6% 1383
Thursday 0.08% 51.1% 1357
Friday 0.00% 50.0% 1351

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 73.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value-$2.7M
Net Shares Change-25,014
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Brothers Norman M. Jr Chief Legal & Compliance Off -$2.7M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-01-28 Brothers Norman M. Jr Chief Legal & Compliance Off -$2.7M Transaction at $106.15, now -3.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for UPS on Trend Edge →