TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TSM Bullish with a Setup Score of 78, net conviction 59, actionability 102. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score78
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction59
Actionability102 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedde… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$434.11
Market Cap$2.27T
Float37.84B
Shares Outstanding5.19B
P/E (Forward)28.17
P/E (TTM)38.03
Price/Sales (TTM)0.55
vs. Analyst Target+13.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin46.51%
Operating Margin (TTM)58.11%
Revenue (TTM)$4.10T
Earnings Growth (YoY)58.40%
Dividend Rate3.8%
Analyst Target Price$490.34 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.34T $510.74B $711.13B $918.55B
2021 $1.59T $592.36B $819.54B $1.09T
2022 $2.26T $992.92B $1.35T $1.59T
2023 $2.16T $851.74B $1.18T $1.52T
2024 $2.89T $1.16T $1.62T $1.98T
2025 $3.85T $1.74T $2.30T $2.75T

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $933.79B $398.27B
Sep 2025 $989.92B $452.30B
Dec 2025 $1.06T $510.52B
Mar 2026 $1.13T $572.48B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.0%
Institutional Ownership15.7%
Short Float0.1%
% of All Funds Holding37.24%
Number of Funds Holding3,061

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$424.08Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$351.33Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$280.87Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$184.34Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$366.51Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$287.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$208.35Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$425.00 support 1.11x 0 months ago
$327.00 support 1.01x 2 months ago
$156.00 support 1.17x 24 months ago
$138.00 support 1.07x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (112 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.16% 0.06% 51.79% 4.51% -5.77%
1 Day -0.06% -0.10% 48.21% 11.65% -10.00%
1 Week 0.14% 0.20% 50.89% 14.39% -12.10%
2 Weeks 0.63% -0.07% 48.21% 33.96% -13.23%
1 Month 1.78% 0.77% 52.68% 29.21% -20.32%

Next earnings: July 16, 2026 (5 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan7.2%69.0%29
Feb0.8%55.2%29
Mar2.1%55.2%29
Apr2.3%65.5%29
May0.3%62.1%29
Jun1.5%55.2%29
Jul-0.4%46.4%28
Aug0.1%53.6%28
Sep-2.0%57.1%28
Oct5.8%78.6%28
Nov4.1%62.1%29
Dec1.8%58.6%29

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 49.2% 1358
Tuesday 0.21% 50.1% 1484
Wednesday 0.18% 52.0% 1484
Thursday 0.11% 49.6% 1453
Friday 0.05% 48.5% 1447

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 15.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings130
Net Value-$12.6M
Net Shares Change-679,191
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings129
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Yuan Lipen VP +$157,514.8 3 3 buy
Tien Bor-Zen VP +$152,340 1 2 buy
Wei Che-Chia Chairman and CEO +$11,186.52 1 1 buy
Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang SVP and Deputy Co-COO +$4,673.82 1 1 buy
Wu Shien-Yang SVP +$4,137.48 1 1 buy
Yeap Choh Fei SVP +$4,060.86 1 1 buy
Yoo Chue-San VP +$3,907.62 1 1 buy
Wu Yi-Huang VP +$2,988.18 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-24 – 2026-04-01 5 4 +$709,180 4 C-suite
2026-04-13 – 2026-04-13 28 28 +$110,415.96 28 C-suite
2026-04-29 – 2026-05-11 29 28 +$123,390.2 29 C-suite
2026-06-09 – 2026-06-23 33 31 +$280,170.54 33 C-suite
2026-06-30 – 2026-07-09 32 31 +$274,932 32 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-30 Tien Bor-Zen VP +$152,340 Transaction at $76.17, now +469.9%
2026-06-23 Yuan Lipen VP +$79,190 Transaction at $79.19, now +448.2%
2026-06-16 Yuan Lipen VP +$75,260 Transaction at $75.26, now +476.8%
2026-07-09 Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang SVP and Deputy Co-COO +$4,673.82 Transaction at $76.62, now +466.6%
2026-07-09 Yuan Lipen VP +$3,064.8 Transaction at $76.62, now +466.6%
2026-07-09 Yoo Chue-San VP +$3,907.62 Transaction at $76.62, now +466.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TSM on Trend Edge →