TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TSM Bullish with a Setup Score of 47, net conviction 66, actionability 33. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score47
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction66
Actionability33 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedde… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$410.12
Market Cap$2.16T
Float37.84B
Shares Outstanding5.19B
P/E (Forward)24.51
P/E (TTM)31.04
Price/Sales (TTM)0.49
vs. Analyst Target+35.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin49.92%
Operating Margin (TTM)60.34%
Revenue (TTM)$4.44T
Earnings Growth (YoY)77.40%
Dividend Rate4.3%
Analyst Target Price$554.45 (17 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.34T $510.74B $711.13B $918.55B
2021 $1.59T $592.36B $819.54B $1.09T
2022 $2.26T $992.92B $1.35T $1.59T
2023 $2.16T $851.74B $1.18T $1.52T
2024 $2.89T $1.16T $1.62T $1.98T
2025 $3.85T $1.74T $2.30T $2.75T

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $989.92B $452.30B
Dec 2025 $1.06T $510.52B
Mar 2026 $1.13T $572.48B
Jun 2026 $1.27T $706.56B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.0%
Institutional Ownership15.5%
Short Float0.1%
% of All Funds Holding40.23%
Number of Funds Holding3,539

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$418.21Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$372.93Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$298.52Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$196.35Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$374.49Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$296.98Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$215.75Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$467.00 resistance 1.19x 0 months ago
$327.00 support 1.01x 3 months ago
$156.00 support 1.17x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.12% 0.05% 51.33% 4.51% -5.77%
1 Day -0.09% -0.12% 47.79% 11.65% -10.00%
1 Week 0.13% 0.18% 50.44% 14.39% -12.10%
2 Weeks 0.62% -0.08% 47.79% 33.96% -13.23%
1 Month 1.78% 0.77% 52.68% 29.21% -20.32%

Next earnings: October 15, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan7.2%69.0%29
Feb0.8%55.2%29
Mar2.1%55.2%29
Apr2.3%65.5%29
May0.3%62.1%29
Jun1.5%55.2%29
Jul-0.9%44.8%29
Aug0.1%53.6%28
Sep-2.0%57.1%28
Oct5.8%78.6%28
Nov4.1%62.1%29
Dec1.8%58.6%29

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.10% 49.2% 1364
Tuesday 0.21% 50.0% 1491
Wednesday 0.18% 51.9% 1491
Thursday 0.11% 49.6% 1460
Friday 0.05% 48.5% 1454

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 15.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings167
Net Value-$11.5M
Net Shares Change-664,194
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings166
Clusters Detected7

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Tien Bor-Zen VP +$527,509.959 3 6 buy
Lin Shyue-Shyh VP +$215,360 1 2 buy
Yuan Lipen VP +$177,102.02 2 3 buy
Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang SVP and Deputy Co-COO +$4,618.53 1 1 buy
Yeap Choh Fei SVP +$4,178.67 1 1 buy
Yoo Chue-San VP +$3,738.81 1 1 buy
Chen Chih-Ho Controller -$31 1 1 buy, 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-24 – 2026-04-01 5 4 +$709,180 4 C-suite
2026-04-13 – 2026-04-13 28 28 +$110,415.96 28 C-suite
2026-04-29 – 2026-05-11 29 28 +$123,390.2 29 C-suite
2026-06-09 – 2026-06-23 33 31 +$280,170.54 33 C-suite
2026-06-30 – 2026-07-09 32 31 +$274,932 32 C-suite
2026-07-16 – 2026-07-30 5 3 +$737,278.959 5 C-suite
2026-08-04 – 2026-08-10 31 30 +$191,968.82 31 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-20 Yuan Lipen VP +$174,023 Transaction at $73.86, now +455.3%
2026-07-30 Tien Bor-Zen VP +$73,820 Transaction at $228.99, now +79.1%
2026-07-23 Tien Bor-Zen VP +$301,349.959 Transaction at $75.90, now +440.4%
2026-07-21 Lin Shyue-Shyh VP +$215,360 Transaction at $71.82, now +471.0%
2026-06-30 Tien Bor-Zen VP +$152,340 Transaction at $76.17, now +438.4%
2026-07-16 Chen Chih-Ho Controller -$31 Transaction at $74.91, now +447.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TSM on Trend Edge →