TONX — TON Strategy Co

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TONX Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 42, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction42
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About TON Strategy Co

TON Strategy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an interactive video-based social commerce company. The company operates in three segments: TON, MARKET.live, and Go Fund Yourself. The company offers digital asset treasury and Web3 ecosystem. It also provides MARKET.live, a livestream social shopping platform that allows brands, retailers, and creators to broadcast shopping events on various social media channels. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$3.78
Market Cap$213M
Float30.3M
Shares Outstanding55.1M
Price/Sales (TTM)6.92
Operating Margin (TTM)3.19%
Revenue (TTM)$30.8M
Dividend RateNone

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $10.0M -$25.0M $5.2M -$22.3M
2021 $10.5M -$34.5M $6.0M -$29.7M
2022 $8,000 -$37.4M $5,000 -$13.4M
2023 $63,000 -$22.0M $44,000 -$11.3M
2024 $895,000 -$10.3M $671,000 -$9.5M
2025 $12.8M -$148M $8.9M -$147M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $3.6M $84.3M
Dec 2025 $5.7M -$228M
Mar 2026 $5.3M -$91.0M
Jun 2026 $15.0M $76.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership31.5%
Institutional Ownership47.9%
Short Float10.1%
% of All Funds Holding0.47%
Number of Funds Holding41

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$3.21Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$2.91Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.99Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$157.34Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$2.77Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.80Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$30.90Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$7.00 resistance 1.98x 11 months ago
$12.80 resistance 2.97x 12 months ago
$15.80 resistance 1.29x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (36 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.21% 0.05% 50.00% 17.90% -9.72%
1 Day -3.02% -3.43% 27.78% 21.12% -40.91%
1 Week -6.03% -9.03% 36.11% 84.97% -52.27%
2 Weeks -4.45% -7.60% 36.11% 98.51% -52.66%
1 Month -4.30% -15.72% 20.00% 238.10% -64.75%

Next earnings: November 11, 2026 (40 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan19.1%50.0%12
Feb17.9%41.7%12
Mar19.0%33.3%12
Apr-7.9%33.3%12
May11.0%50.0%12
Jun-7.4%16.7%12
Jul3.3%50.0%12
Aug2.0%50.0%12
Sep-14.8%9.1%11
Oct-22.5%27.3%11
Nov-9.4%36.4%11
Dec-3.2%33.3%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.93% 38.0% 558
Tuesday -0.43% 35.2% 614
Wednesday -0.39% 37.5% 611
Thursday -0.11% 38.8% 598
Friday 1.30% 42.3% 596

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 47.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 31.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value-$558,255.49
Net Shares Change-1,090,184
% of Float-3.6%
C-Suite Filings6
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
CUTAIA RORY J. -$1.9M 3 3 sell
Olsen Sarah Josephine CFO & COO -$571,794.03 2 1 buy, 1 sell
Wilson Kevin Mark Chief Executive Officer +$49,160.29 2 2 buy
Rivard Bill John Chief Accounting Officer -$41,253.75 1 1 sell
Sohn Evan +$9,930.45 1 1 buy
Marbach Mary General Counsel/Corp Secretary +$5,632 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-05-14 – 2026-05-15 4 4 +$71,848.45 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-14 Wilson Kevin Mark Chief Executive Officer +$19,807.09 Transaction at $2.71, now +39.3%
2026-09-08 Rivard Bill John Chief Accounting Officer -$41,253.75 Transaction at $3.30, now +14.5%
2026-08-17 Olsen Sarah Josephine CFO & COO -$598,726.83 Transaction at $2.75, now +37.3%
2026-05-15 Marbach Mary General Counsel/Corp Secretary +$5,632 Transaction at $3.52, now +7.4%
2026-05-14 Wilson Kevin Mark Chief Executive Officer +$29,353.2 Transaction at $3.66, now +3.3%
2026-05-14 Olsen Sarah Josephine CFO & COO +$26,932.8 Transaction at $3.62, now +4.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for TON Strategy Co (TONX) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TONX on Trend Edge →