MSTR — MicroStrategy Incorporated

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MSTR Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 26, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction26
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About MicroStrategy Incorporated

Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. The company also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the abi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$92.52
Market Cap$38.24B
Float357.8M
Shares Outstanding374.2M
P/E (Forward)7.45
Price/Sales (TTM)76.73
vs. Analyst Target+147.6% to analyst PT
Operating Margin (TTM)-6808.11%
Revenue (TTM)$498M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-77.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$229.07 (13 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $481M -$7.5M $390M $70.4M
2021 $511M -$535M $419M -$771M
2022 $499M -$1.47B $396M -$1.26B
2023 $496M $429M $386M -$115M
2024 $463M -$1.17B $334M -$1.85B
2025 $477M -$3.85B $328M -$5.44B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $129M $2.79B
Dec 2025 $123M -$12.44B
Mar 2026 $124M -$12.54B
Jun 2026 $122M -$8.22B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership59.0%
Short Float11.3%
% of All Funds Holding9.58%
Number of Funds Holding833

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$95.56Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$138.48Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$238.82Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$160.82Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$133.04Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$234.51Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$178.15Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$148.00 resistance 1.48x 1 months ago
$264.00 resistance 1.14x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.67% -0.13% 46.02% 29.74% -17.68%
1 Day 0.89% 0.14% 50.44% 40.63% -26.00%
1 Week 0.87% -0.48% 49.56% 54.59% -51.02%
2 Weeks 1.56% 1.50% 56.64% 78.83% -46.49%
1 Month 3.69% 0.06% 50.00% 198.04% -66.14%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (60 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan11.9%67.9%28
Feb0.5%42.9%28
Mar-0.9%50.0%28
Apr-1.9%46.4%28
May-0.2%42.9%28
Jun-0.8%42.9%28
Jul6.9%55.2%29
Aug-0.3%39.3%28
Sep1.9%50.0%28
Oct16.6%75.0%28
Nov5.6%57.1%28
Dec1.4%42.9%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.14% 49.4% 1332
Tuesday 0.16% 50.7% 1455
Wednesday 0.19% 48.6% 1455
Thursday 0.02% 48.3% 1427
Friday 0.20% 51.7% 1419

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 59.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

Founder-led management: Michael J. Saylor (Executive Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings51
Net Value-$32.1M
Net Shares Change225,390
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings26
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Patten Jarrod M -$3.8M 5 5 sell
Le Phong President & CEO +$1.3M 3 3 buy
Shao Wei-Ming EVP & General Counsel +$1.2M 1 1 buy
Chow Thomas C. EVP & General Counsel +$9,998.103 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-12 – 2025-11-25 6 3 -$3.5M 5 C-suite
2026-01-09 – 2026-01-21 3 3 +$880,079.88 1 C-suite
2026-03-13 – 2026-03-25 7 3 -$1.0M 7 C-suite
2026-05-21 – 2026-06-01 5 3 -$4.9M 2 C-suite
2026-06-05 – 2026-06-18 8 5 -$16.3M 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-22 Le Phong President & CEO +$998,756 Transaction at $90.80, now +1.9%
2026-06-17 Chow Thomas C. EVP & General Counsel +$9,998.103 Transaction at $90.07, now +2.7%
2026-05-26 Le Phong President & CEO +$5,467.352 Transaction at $99.41, now -6.9%
2026-03-23 Le Phong President & CEO +$249,946.58 Transaction at $99.62, now -7.1%
2026-08-10 Patten Jarrod M -$319,848.66 Transaction at $60.32, now +53.4%
2026-07-28 Patten Jarrod M -$301,202.85 Transaction at $56.85, now +62.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MSTR on Trend Edge →