SPSC — SPS Commerce Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SPSC Bearish with a Setup Score of 36, net conviction 47, actionability 28. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score36
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction47
Actionability28 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About SPS Commerce Inc

SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions in the United States. It offers solutions through SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that connects retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers, handling the complexity of modern commerce operations. The company also provides Fulfillment, a comprehensive solution designed to streamline supply chain operation that sends and receives order data, e… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$80.56
Market Cap$2.86B
Float35.6M
Shares Outstanding36.0M
P/E (Forward)68.03
P/E (TTM)38.94
Price/Sales (TTM)3.70
vs. Analyst Target-6.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin10.10%
Operating Margin (TTM)16.11%
Revenue (TTM)$772M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-63.90%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$75.45 (12 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $313M $45.6M $213M $68.8M
2021 $385M $44.6M $254M $78.5M
2022 $451M $55.1M $298M $99.4M
2023 $537M $65.8M $355M $111M
2024 $638M $77.1M $427M $142M
2025 $752M $93.3M $520M $177M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $190M $25.6M
Dec 2025 $193M $25.8M
Mar 2026 $192M $19.7M
Jun 2026 $198M $6.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.0%
Institutional Ownership114.3%
Short Float8.1%
% of All Funds Holding3.59%
Number of Funds Holding316

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$69.34Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$68.37Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$95.13Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$141.84Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$69.79Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$98.72Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$141.03Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$89.00 resistance 2.06x 5 months ago
$103.00 resistance 1.46x 9 months ago
$135.00 resistance 1.33x 12 months ago
$180.00 resistance 1.78x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (66 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.01% 1.42% 65.15% 13.10% -28.78%
1 Day 0.66% 0.95% 60.61% 15.98% -21.99%
1 Week 0.53% 2.08% 56.06% 22.38% -34.58%
2 Weeks 0.59% 1.75% 59.09% 22.18% -32.16%
1 Month 1.56% 1.82% 55.38% 35.03% -46.80%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.3%56.3%16
Feb-3.6%50.0%16
Mar0.4%43.8%16
Apr2.0%56.3%16
May3.0%58.8%17
Jun5.3%82.4%17
Jul3.9%70.6%17
Aug2.6%62.5%16
Sep1.8%43.8%16
Oct-1.5%50.0%16
Nov4.6%68.8%16
Dec2.5%50.0%16

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.09% 50.9% 770
Tuesday -0.00% 49.5% 845
Wednesday 0.12% 51.5% 842
Thursday 0.02% 52.5% 827
Friday 0.22% 52.2% 825

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 114.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$1.3M
Net Shares Change142,814
% of Float0.4%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Collins Chadwick Chief Executive Officer -$785,128.193 1 N/A
Nelson Kimberly K. EVP & CFO -$369,527.13 1 N/A
THINGELSTAD JAMIE EVP, Chief Technology Officer -$132,851.69 1 N/A
Reaume Marty M -$120,456.547 5 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-11 – 2026-02-24 4 4 -$1.3M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-24 THINGELSTAD JAMIE EVP, Chief Technology Officer -$132,851.69 Transaction at $54.94, now +46.6%
2026-02-24 Nelson Kimberly K. EVP & CFO -$369,527.13 Transaction at $58.66, now +37.3%
2026-02-24 Collins Chadwick Chief Executive Officer -$785,128.193 Transaction at $58.66, now +37.3%
2026-05-11 Reaume Marty M -$5,230 Transaction at $54.41, now +48.0%
2026-04-09 Reaume Marty M -$6,100 Transaction at $54.85, now +46.9%
2026-03-11 Reaume Marty M -$10,930 Transaction at $57.27, now +40.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SPSC on Trend Edge →