SMTC — Semtech Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SMTC Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 34, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction34
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. The company operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical and copper data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$136.13
Market Cap$12.81B
Float92.6M
Shares Outstanding93.2M
P/E (Forward)50.51
Price/Sales (TTM)11.75
vs. Analyst Target+50.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-3.04%
Operating Margin (TTM)9.27%
Revenue (TTM)$1.09B
Earnings Growth (YoY)22.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$205.25 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $595M $59.9M $355M $107M
2022 $741M $126M $461M $183M
2023 $757M $61.4M $479M $131M
2024 $869M -$1.09B $374M -$851M
2025 $909M -$162M $456M -$44.9M
2026 $1.05B -$40.4M $542M $60.2M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jul 2025 $258M -$27.1M
Oct 2025 $267M -$2.9M
Jan 2026 $274M -$29.8M
Apr 2026 $291M $26.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership109.0%
Short Float7.8%
% of All Funds Holding4.99%
Number of Funds Holding410

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$146.59Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$96.47Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$71.95Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$46.91Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$101.81Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$75.70Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$52.96Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$104.00 support 1.69x 1 months ago
$76.00 support 1.27x 2 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (120 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.25% 1.12% 59.17% 19.84% -24.20%
1 Day 0.98% 1.12% 53.33% 21.06% -27.15%
1 Week 1.54% 0.76% 54.17% 37.01% -40.54%
2 Weeks 1.58% 1.86% 53.33% 38.94% -41.28%
1 Month 1.56% 1.14% 52.94% 70.83% -48.73%

Next earnings: August 24, 2026 (43 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan8.9%65.2%46
Feb-0.6%45.7%46
Mar3.3%52.2%46
Apr1.7%51.1%47
May6.2%63.8%47
Jun-0.4%40.4%47
Jul-0.6%50.0%46
Aug4.4%56.5%46
Sep-0.6%45.7%46
Oct-1.8%34.8%46
Nov5.9%60.9%46
Dec-0.9%41.3%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 41.1% 2206
Tuesday 0.01% 43.1% 2394
Wednesday 0.31% 44.1% 2392
Thursday 0.14% 42.7% 2346
Friday 0.17% 41.8% 2330

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 109.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings41
Net Value-$15.7M
Net Shares Change-101,053
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings24
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
HOU HONG Q President and CEO -$2.2M 2 2 sell
WILSON JOHN MICHAEL Chief Quality Officer and CTO -$935,000 1 1 sell
Green Jason Elliot EVP and CCO -$907,077.926 2 1 sell
Li Ye Jane -$881,757.856 1 1 sell
Fischer Gregory Michael -$399,045 2 1 sell
Silberstein Asaf EVP and COO -$328,000 1 1 sell
Burvill Martin -$222,448.75 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-06 – 2026-01-13 4 4 -$914,467.22 2 C-suite
2026-04-13 – 2026-04-24 3 3 -$455,633.75 1 C-suite
2026-05-22 – 2026-06-05 4 4 -$1.4M 1 C-suite
2026-06-24 – 2026-07-06 5 5 -$3.1M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-01 HOU HONG Q President and CEO -$1.5M Transaction at $152.57, now -10.8%
2026-06-24 WILSON JOHN MICHAEL Chief Quality Officer and CTO -$935,000 Transaction at $170.00, now -19.9%
2026-04-13 Burvill Martin -$222,448.75 Transaction at $88.98, now +53.0%
2026-06-05 Silberstein Asaf EVP and COO -$328,000 Transaction at $164.00, now -17.0%
2026-06-01 Li Ye Jane -$881,757.856 Transaction at $166.84, now -18.4%
2026-06-01 Fischer Gregory Michael -$164,685 Transaction at $164.69, now -17.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SMTC on Trend Edge →