SMSI — Smith Micro Software Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates SMSI Bearish with a Setup Score of 35, net conviction 51, actionability 24. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score35
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction51
Actionability24 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Smith Micro Software Inc

Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops and sells software solutions to simplify and enhance the mobile experience to wireless and cable service providers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers SafePath OS, SafePath Kids, SafePath Family, SafePath Global, SafePath Drive, OS for senior phone, SafePath 8, drive, digital wellness, and SafePath IoT, which provides tools to protect digital lifestyles and manage connected … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$2.87
Market Cap$16.0M
Float3.6M
Shares Outstanding5.6M
P/E (Forward)10.12
Price/Sales (TTM)0.92
vs. Analyst Target+466.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-165.34%
Operating Margin (TTM)-79.91%
Revenue (TTM)$17.0M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-84.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$16.25 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $51.3M $4.2M $46.1M $7.1M
2021 $58.4M -$31.0M $45.7M -$8.7M
2022 $48.5M -$29.3M $34.3M -$17.7M
2023 $40.9M -$24.4M $30.3M -$10.5M
2024 $20.6M -$48.7M $14.4M -$19.1M
2025 $17.4M -$30.1M $12.9M -$23.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.4M -$15.1M
Sep 2025 $4.3M -$4.5M
Dec 2025 $4.0M -$4.6M
Mar 2026 $4.2M -$3.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership23.8%
Institutional Ownership7.1%
Short Float3.7%

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$2.73Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$3.17Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$3.79Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$24.22Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$3.18Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$3.80Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$14.15Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$4.50 resistance 4.18x 1 months ago
$2.50 support 2.21x 4 months ago
$12.30 resistance 2.07x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.80% 0.00% 42.98% 37.68% -45.64%
1 Day -2.18% -3.52% 32.23% 66.67% -42.95%
1 Week -3.19% -4.51% 40.00% 68.70% -55.24%
2 Weeks -5.45% -6.91% 36.67% 81.16% -66.13%
1 Month -2.19% -4.83% 40.00% 140.00% -77.02%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan16.5%54.8%31
Feb-5.7%45.2%31
Mar10.7%38.7%31
Apr10.5%61.3%31
May-3.6%29.0%31
Jun-5.1%38.7%31
Jul2.9%48.4%31
Aug-4.5%40.0%30
Sep0.2%40.0%30
Oct1.1%38.7%31
Nov1.6%35.5%31
Dec3.1%54.8%31

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.25% 39.6% 1461
Tuesday 0.22% 41.9% 1596
Wednesday 0.17% 42.0% 1595
Thursday 0.58% 42.2% 1563
Friday -0.08% 44.5% 1556

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 7.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 23.8%

Founder-led management: William W. Smith Jr. (Co-Founder & Executive Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value-$139,114.707
Net Shares Change15,777
% of Float0.4%
C-Suite Filings9
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SMITH WILLIAM W JR President and CEO -$107,214.459 5 5 sell
Huffmyer Timothy C. VP, COO, CFO and Treasurer -$31,900.248 4 4 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-06 Huffmyer Timothy C. VP, COO, CFO and Treasurer +N/A N/A
2026-02-24 Huffmyer Timothy C. VP, COO, CFO and Treasurer +N/A N/A
2026-03-06 SMITH WILLIAM W JR President and CEO -$22,680.418 Transaction at $0.52, now +448.8%
2026-02-24 SMITH WILLIAM W JR President and CEO +N/A N/A
2025-11-13 Huffmyer Timothy C. VP, COO, CFO and Treasurer -$13,331.838 Transaction at $0.69, now +318.4%
2025-08-18 Huffmyer Timothy C. VP, COO, CFO and Treasurer -$18,568.41 Transaction at $0.87, now +229.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Smith Micro Software Inc (SMSI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SMSI on Trend Edge →