PKG — Packaging Corp of America

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Packaging Corp of America

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in reta… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$217.99
Market Cap$19.00B
Float86.9M
Shares Outstanding89.1M
P/E (Forward)20.12
P/E (TTM)24.68
Price/Sales (TTM)2.07
vs. Analyst Target+8.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin8.04%
Operating Margin (TTM)13.45%
Revenue (TTM)$9.22B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-15.50%
Dividend Rate6.0%
Analyst Target Price$235.90 (11 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $6.66B $461M $1.39B $1.14B
2021 $7.73B $841M $1.87B $1.68B
2022 $8.48B $1.03B $2.09B $1.89B
2023 $7.80B $765M $1.70B $1.59B
2024 $8.38B $805M $1.78B $1.63B
2025 $8.99B $769M $1.89B $1.76B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $2.17B $242M
Sep 2025 $2.31B $227M
Dec 2025 $2.36B $101M
Mar 2026 $2.37B $171M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.6%
Institutional Ownership99.9%
Short Float4.5%
% of All Funds Holding10.00%
Number of Funds Holding822

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$213.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$213.81Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$210.33Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$179.60Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$214.03Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$211.40Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$188.39Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$229.00 resistance 1.40x 1 months ago
$206.00 support 1.28x 3 months ago
$248.00 resistance 1.28x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (105 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.01% 0.01% 52.38% 6.56% -10.55%
1 Day 0.16% 0.29% 55.24% 6.54% -6.41%
1 Week -0.06% 0.13% 51.43% 7.38% -11.18%
2 Weeks 0.79% 0.67% 52.38% 12.62% -11.62%
1 Month 1.24% 1.05% 63.46% 17.33% -31.92%

Next earnings: July 12, 2026 (45 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.0%50.0%26
Feb1.3%63.0%27
Mar1.0%44.4%27
Apr1.8%55.6%27
May1.0%61.5%26
Jun-1.8%34.6%26
Jul6.1%76.9%26
Aug0.9%53.8%26
Sep-1.3%50.0%26
Oct2.3%61.5%26
Nov2.8%65.4%26
Dec0.6%61.5%26

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.01% 50.3% 1242
Tuesday 0.11% 50.0% 1359
Wednesday 0.10% 51.0% 1358
Thursday -0.00% 49.9% 1332
Friday 0.12% 53.9% 1328

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 99.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value-$8.2M
Net Shares Change-37,129
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KOWLZAN MARK W Chairman and CEO -$5.4M 1 1 sell
Hassfurther Thomas A President -$2.8M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-09 Hassfurther Thomas A President -$2.8M Transaction at $230.50, now -5.4%
2025-09-15 KOWLZAN MARK W Chairman and CEO -$5.4M Transaction at $215.97, now +0.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Packaging Corp of America (PKG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PKG on Trend Edge →