IP — International Paper

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates IP Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 19, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction19
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About International Paper

International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$41.04
Market Cap$21.37B
Float527.2M
Shares Outstanding529.6M
P/E (Forward)30.30
Price/Sales (TTM)0.88
vs. Analyst Target+17.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-14.21%
Operating Margin (TTM)2.30%
Revenue (TTM)$24.20B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-90.10%
Dividend Rate1.9%
Analyst Target Price$48.00 (13 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $17.57B $230M $4.18B $2.06B
2021 $19.36B $1.75B $5.53B $2.64B
2022 $21.16B $1.50B $6.02B $2.95B
2023 $18.92B $302M $3.85B $2.27B
2024 $18.62B $557M $5.24B $1.88B
2025 $24.90B -$3.52B $7.35B -$138M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $6.22B -$1.10B
Dec 2025 $6.01B -$2.38B
Mar 2026 $5.97B $60.0M
Jun 2026 $6.00B -$12.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership102.6%
Short Float9.1%
% of All Funds Holding9.67%
Number of Funds Holding851

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$40.09Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$38.65Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$43.14Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$41.42Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$38.23Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$43.47Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$42.23Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$33.00 support 1.08x 1 months ago
$30.80 support 1.10x 2 months ago
$42.00 resistance 1.34x 4 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (143 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.01% 0.00% 49.65% 3.43% -4.80%
1 Day 0.18% 0.11% 51.75% 11.89% -13.31%
1 Week 0.47% 0.31% 52.45% 19.44% -23.95%
2 Weeks 0.25% 0.26% 53.15% 34.50% -34.51%
1 Month 0.80% 1.59% 59.86% 32.46% -55.99%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.6%54.9%51
Feb-0.9%47.1%51
Mar0.4%43.1%51
Apr2.6%64.7%51
May0.2%51.0%51
Jun-0.8%41.2%51
Jul3.7%64.7%51
Aug-0.5%44.0%50
Sep-1.9%38.0%50
Oct-0.7%48.0%50
Nov2.4%60.0%50
Dec1.7%62.7%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.05% 48.5% 2396
Tuesday 0.09% 48.7% 2599
Wednesday 0.02% 47.4% 2600
Thursday -0.01% 46.4% 2550
Friday 0.09% 49.5% 2535

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 102.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings8
Net Value-$260,587.7
Net Shares Change55,273
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Silvernail Andrew K Chief Executive Officer +$2.0M 1 1 buy
Hamic William Thomas Exec. VP & President -$1.0M 1 1 sell
Connor Christopher M +$1.0M 1 1 buy
GUSTAFSSON ANDERS +$1.0M 1 1 buy
Ellis Clay R Senior Vice President -$693,480.15 1 1 sell
Saab Joseph R. SVP, GC and Corp. Secretary -$409,815 1 1 sell
Tozier Scott +$313,009 1 1 buy
Goughnour Holly G. VP & Chief Accounting Officer -$146,860 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-10 Hamic William Thomas Exec. VP & President -$1.0M Transaction at $41.20, now -0.4%
2026-08-04 Goughnour Holly G. VP & Chief Accounting Officer -$146,860 Transaction at $41.96, now -2.2%
2026-03-12 GUSTAFSSON ANDERS +$1.0M Transaction at $38.33, now +7.1%
2026-05-01 Tozier Scott +$313,009 Transaction at $31.30, now +31.1%
2026-01-30 Silvernail Andrew K Chief Executive Officer +$2.0M Transaction at $39.98, now +2.7%
2026-02-02 Connor Christopher M +$1.0M Transaction at $40.37, now +1.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for International Paper (IP) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for IP on Trend Edge →